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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56698)	6/26/2012 5:05:12 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95530

Great post Jacob. However I don't think it's wise to base trading decisions on absolute levels on the VIX. Under the right set of circumstances it can trade below 16 for year. Shorting simply because the VIX is low is not a good idea. Also highs can vary dramatically but ultimately they always are a hallmark of a great buying opportunity when they form lower but still extreme highs on the VIX with lower lows in the market. I have a few more comments but I will put them in additional posts. RtS

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56698)	6/26/2012 5:57:20 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Also on recessions it is possible that they will become more frequent in the future. On average the economy has fallen into a recession every 4.5 to 5 years. Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle. Here is what WIKI has to say: en.wikipedia.org According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. [5] However, since 1980 there have been only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, [42] and four periods considered recessions: July 1981 – November 1982: 14 months July 1990 – March 1991: 8 months March 2001 – November 2001: 8 months December 2007 – June 2009: 18 months Back to me commenting now. I'm certainly not Wikipedia! ;-) Over the last 30 years recessions have happened less often but the bubbles that have been used to avoid them have been gigantic. Take into account the amount of stock market speculation that led to the top in 2000. That was a huge bubble. Nothing like it since 1928. Then the housing bubble. Loans going to people who never should have been able to afford a home in the first place with balloon payments, people trying to flip houses like they were stocks in 1999, of course that could not end well. Now we have a huge Federal deficit and artificially low interest rates with money being loaned to banks who have very little incentive to share it with consumers. If this tepid stock market advance cannot do any better with near 0% interest rates then how do we stimulate the economy? This credit bubble will end badly. You can only push on the string, or kick the can along, for so long before people realize that it's just not working. Anyway, I hope we have a social security system and Medicare when I retire but I sure am not counting on it. Still, the next time we get the VIX doing it's thing and more bears than bulls in the Investors Intelligence Poll I am 50% in the market asap. That's regardless of how much worse everyone says things are going to get at the time. Greed wins out in the end. An individual asset can appreciate forever giving a huge percentage gains. And the most you can lose is 100% of your investment by going long. Going short... look out! RtS

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56698)	6/27/2012 10:24:14 AM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Respond to of 95530

I would love to be as enthusiastic as you but with huge debt ,that have for all practical purposes sustained our economic growth, and austerity staring our politicians in the face for 2013 ' The Buck Stops here' battle cry will ultimately rule our equity markets.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56698)	1/2/2013 4:07:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95530

Upcoming shorting opportunity: This post is about the medium-term effects of government policy on stocks, particularly "risk on" assets like semis and other consumer discretionary. 6 months ago I said "For the S&P500, I now expect we will get back to the 2000 and 2007 double top (just above 1500), before end-2013. At that level and above, I will be net short the market." Message 28229062 I still think this is going to happen, and I'm still positioning myself the same way. Last month, I predicted "the "fiscal cliff" negotiations look like they are going to produce a trivial increase in tax revenue, a trivial reduction in spending, and therefore trillion dollar deficits into the indefinite future." Message 28612907 I was wrong. What actually was done, is a trivial increase in taxes, and no decrease in spending at all. They kicked the can down the road, yet again...but not very far. In a few weeks, the news is going to be dominated by wrangling about spending, deficits, sequestration, debt limits, etc. That fight is likely to be nastier than the fiscal cliff brawl, with even less willingness to compromise by all parties. Last time, doing nothing meant the President got his tax increases. Next time, doing nothing means the Republicans get their spending cuts. In addition, we should all understand, corporate profits and profit margins are now about as good as they can get. So, further increases in stock prices have to come from expanding PEs. That probably will happen....for a few weeks. This increasing valuation is caused by the globally coordinated policy of zirp (zero interest rate policy) and QE (print, print, print). Corporations are borrowing money at absurdly low interest rates, then using the money to buy back shares and pay dividends. Too late, we will all see this behavior as clear evidence of a credit bubble. Irrational borrowing behavior used to be controlled by the bond vigilantes, but the Fed has very creatively intervened to end all restraints. Nothing and nobody is restraining central bank printing and government borrowing. So, any further increases in stock prices from today's levels are likely to be given back. Unsustainable trends have to end; only the timing is uncertain. In 2013, we will see at least one prolonged period when the stock market does "risk off". I will short all rallies, in increments, until that happens.