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To: Robert O who wrote (1023)6/29/2012 10:35:31 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8239
 
Hi RO,
I've been away from computers for the better part of the week.

The negativity in the networking sector is huge, so swing trades are a very good bet when stocks reach new lows or start to break above previous resistance. RIMM and NOK are the poster children for the "have nots" vs. the GOOGs and AAPLs of this world. I like the way CIEN has reacted lately, as an indication that the shorts may be starting to close out the massive positions they've taken in the networkers. Similarly, the rebounds in UBNT and ARUN off their recent lows are encouraging. My mistake was letting APKT break below new low after new low without a proper stop strategy. I like to think I'm a better trader than this but clearly I have to find more discipline when a long term holding starts to bust downward. Luckily, I'm in a position to wait it out, even if it ends up being a worse hit on my pocket. I am going to see what the new earnings release looks like before taking either a huge hit or deciding to let the position stand as is or trim some out.

As to RVBD specifically, I think they are a fine company with plenty of potential. There is enough business in this industry for most of these players, as long as things start to improve. I am somewhat positive that we will start to see this over the next 3 to 9 months. As is often the case, many of these stocks were "buys" from the analysts at twice or triple the current price and "now" they are holds or sells. I don't place a lot of importance on their calls with the exception that they can hammer a stock or a group of stocks, like they have done to most of the companies in the sector. I truly believe that CSCO is not the company it once was and that their problems are much more specific to them and not the industry. Since CSCO is the bellwether for the networkers, their weak performance allows the analysts to see weakness everywhere! Whether or not that weakness is real or imagined is the key to profiting here! To me, the beauty of this negative view is that we can buy some VERY good companies at discounted prices and also trade the large swings. Playing morning pops like today's launch can be very fruitful but beware the fade, as this is a very jittery market and the turns are often fast and furious.

The hype from a few years ago is past. RVBD, APKT and many others have come down to earth. They may continue to fall if their customers don't spend more than currently is priced into the stocks!!



To: Robert O who wrote (1023)6/29/2012 12:44:47 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8239
 
NVDA chart looking much more positive than RVBD, fwiw.

EDIT - however, NVDA hitting a lot of overhead resistance in the charts if it goes up from here!