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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: THE ANT who wrote (1015)6/30/2012 7:42:04 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2504
 
My views on the Hendry's ideas: Batista was trying to make too much too quickly. I expect he engaging more more outsiders diluting his holdings. He already started on this trend.

China slowing down is good. It was creating too much inflation as it vacuum cleaned everything. As it slows down, commodities prices go down and give a chance for others, who could only bid prices up to a certain point, a chance of accessing such commodities. Europe will benefit from that trend but it does not mean it will save. EZ, as presently constituted, is beyond salvation.

The fracking energy in the US is a result of a shock delayed 40 years. US had money, technology and managerial capacity to it any time it would be forced to do it. It had been importing oil and exporting USD for too long. Brazil got the shock and pain went to the bones immediately and started seeking hard to get oil. Only this century the oil shock hit the US.

Hendry is trying to tell us: Finance still the place to be. Even if the money went to productive ends and we don't have much access to it anymore, finance is good.
Finance has it coming, but that belongs to the Beyond the F C of 2001 thread.



To: THE ANT who wrote (1015)6/30/2012 12:47:01 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2504
 
The Brazilian machistas may have a point: Male acquaintances say that a “half-gringa” like her would naturally neglect home and children.

Women and the labour market in Brazil Amazons at work.
A revolution in the workplace meets little resistance
Jun 30th 2012 | RIO DE JANEIRO | from the print edition

FOR Adriana Graciano, leaving her violent partner meant losing custody of her children to him, since she lacked both a job and a home. Now she is training as a bricklayer with Mão na Massa (roughly, “Get your hands dirty”), a non-profit outfit that since 2007 has been teaching women from favelas (slums) trades such as plumbing, house-painting and bricklaying. Of the 94 women who finished its courses in the first two years, two-thirds are working in the industry. Their average earnings have risen from just 44 reais ($21) before they joined the scheme to 631 reais a month.

Ms Graciano, who hopes soon to have a job, a home, and her children back, is one of many Brazilian women whose lives are being transformed. In 1960 just 17% worked outside the home, among the lowest rates in Latin America; now two-thirds have jobs, one of the region’s highest. That is partly because they have far fewer children than in the past. In 1960 Brazilian women had six children each; now they average 1.9, fewer than anywhere else in Latin America except Cuba.

Big rises in the minimum wage, an increase in formal jobs and entry into fields long dominated by men all mean the gap between the pay of poorly educated women and that of their male peers has started to shrink. At the same time, more Brazilian women are well-qualified than ever before. Girls are staying at school longer than boys, and three-fifths of recent university graduates are women.

Research by the Centre for Talent Innovation, a New York think-tank, found that 59% of college-educated Brazilian women described themselves as “very ambitious”, compared with just 36% in the United States. The speed of the shift in attitudes has taken businesses by surprise. “Global companies still think women in emerging markets are all barefoot and pregnant, and many Brazilian firms are run by older men with traditional views,” says Sylvia Ann Hewlett, the think-tank’s president.

A tight labour market and a shortage of talent are leading employers to look beyond their prejudices. It helps that a country where women have long been sidelined in politics is now governed by one. Though Dilma Rousseff owes her arrival in the presidency to a man—her predecessor and mentor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—in office she has shown herself to be her own woman. An anti-corruption drive, predictably described by the media as “housecleaning”, has seen her sack many of the mediocre men she inherited, and raise the share of women in her cabinet above a quarter. She is slowly replacing the politicians running state-controlled businesses with better-qualified people—again, often women where men were before. Graça Foster, who took over as boss of Petrobras earlier this year, has degrees in chemical and nuclear engineering, an MBA and three decades in the oil industry. If Ms Rousseff seeks and wins a second term, it would be on her own record.

For clever, hardworking women, Brazil’s system of open examinations for many public-sector jobs offers a starting point. But in the past many ruled themselves out. In the 1990s, when the sole female minister, Claudia Costin, studied women’s career paths in the public service, she found that often potential candidates would not enter for the exam if the job might mean moving. Ms Costin, who is now Rio de Janeiro’s municipal education secretary, says that once in work the barriers Brazilian women face are fewer than they might imagine—though she thinks it is still difficult for a Brazilian woman in the public eye to have a private life.

Women managers are suddenly no longer exceptional. Fernanda Montenegro, the assistant human-resources director at São Paulo’s Grand Hyatt Hotel, moved to Switzerland to train in 2001 and has worked in Europe and the United States. When she started working at the Grand Hyatt in 2008, standing in for her boss at executive-council meetings meant being the only woman; now the sales director is also a woman, and in the past five years the number of female job applicants she deals with has soared. The negative reactions she has encountered come from outside work. Her mother frets that at 31 she is still unmarried. Male acquaintances say that a “half-gringa” like her would naturally neglect home and children.

But Brazilian machismo can be surprisingly easy to ignore. That may be because for men, too, work has never been better. Though the economy has slowed to a crawl, as yet there is little sign of a weaker jobs market. Salaries have risen strongly in real terms for years, and unemployment is at a record low.

Norma Sá of Mão na Massa says its alumnae have faced little prejudice on-site: “Men don’t worry that it’s competition for ‘their’ jobs, because there is so much work for everyone.” If that changes, attitudes may harden. For professional women, a more immediate obstacle may be the rising cost of domestic help. Few Brazilian men lift a finger at home. But of the 7.2m Brazilians working as domestics, nearly all are women—women who have more options than ever before.

from the print edition | The Americas



To: THE ANT who wrote (1015)7/1/2012 2:28:22 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2504
 
Future is with Brazil’s new wealthy

By Phil Davis

It is not obvious why fund managers are attracted to a market where there is little equity culture, minimal demand for international assets and a bank-dominated distribution market. And yet investment firms are flocking to register funds in Brazil. Over 400 – mainly domestic, but increasingly global – fund managers are now registered with the local funds association.

The attraction, clearly, is more about potential than current opportunities. Like many Latin American countries, Brazil has a young and rising population with a fast-growing middle class. As Christoph Hofmann, global head of distribution at Ashmore Investment Management, notes: “People are evolving from a situation where they can’t feed their families to having significant amounts of discretionary income. And because people have grown up without government safety nets, the savings rate is high.”

These savings are starting to be put to work: assets under management in Brazil have grown at a compound annual rate of 19 per cent over the past 15 years, and even faster over the past three years. The trouble is, from an international investment firm’s viewpoint, the vast majority of these assets are invested in domestic bonds.

“For a long time we have had the highest interest rates in the world,” says Pedro Bastos, chief executive of HSBC Global Asset Management in Brazil. “Brazilian investors are addicted to high interest rates, daily liquidity and no risk.”

This means any asset manager hoping to attract flows in Brazil needs to have a strong offering in domestic bonds. It cannot hope to break into the market with purely international assets, particularly if they are equity-based. “We have to play the local game and offer local products,” says Mr Hofmann. “Brazil has very attractive interest rates so pension funds have historically been able to match their liabilities without taking non-local currency risk.”

But the environment is changing. Interest rates are falling fast as the threat of inflation declines and the economy slows down, with real rates declining from about 7 per cent a year ago to 3.5 per cent now. Market consensus is that rates will fall even lower.

Foreign fund managers in particular are starting to sense an opportunity as investors look to diversify and seek new sources of yield. The government is encouraging this shift, by easing restrictions on owning foreign assets. Those with a net worth of more than $1m can now invest 100 per cent of their portfolios in foreign equities while below that threshold there is a cap at 20 per cent.

Although appetite for equities is currently low, demand for absolute return strategies that include equities is rising. Credit Suisse points out that Brazil’s answer to hedge funds – the multi mercado – have seen assets under management grow at 23 per cent a year compound over the past 15 years. Risk-averse local investors are particularly interested in the capital protection they provide.

The move to equities and international assets has been slow so far in most segments, but the wealth management channel is showing signs of more rapid change.

“In the past, the wealthy used private banks overseas,” says Mr Bastos. “But there has been so much wealth creation and so many new millionaires who, for tax purposes and for simplification, keep their resources in Brazil, but are looking to invest in overseas assets.”

To access this market both onshore and offshore, many fund managers distribute through the big global brokers such as Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan and Citibank. “We work with all the global private banks,” says Mr Hofmann.

Asset managers are forging close relationships with these brokers in London and New York but many are reinforcing their presence on the ground in Brazil where the products are often sold. “You will only have limited success if at the point of sale in Brazil, the sales people don’t know who you are,” Mr Hofmann adds. The same kinds of relationships are sought with the largest Brazilian banks, which also have substantial wealth management arms.

Investment firms believe the institutional market must also adapt to the new macroeconomic climate. “Clearly pension funds cannot meet actuarial targets structured as they are today,” says Mr Bastos. Nevertheless, when HSBC tried to introduce an international fund to the market two years ago, take up was low. “We were a little early,” Mr Bastos concedes. With fees for providing local fixed income products to the large domestic pension funds at less than 5 basis points, change cannot come too soon for international fund managers.

Some believe that individual pension plan holders will diversify their assets before the institutions take the plunge. Vehicles similar to the 401k structures in the US have been the fastest growing segment in Brazil for the past 10 years, according to HSBC, and these investors tend to keep firmly on top of trends and shifts in the market.

The retail distribution channel is dominated by the top 10 banks, which have 75-80 per cent of the market. But there is reason to believe this oligopoly could weaken in the future. “Brazil is a young population and very technology-oriented,” says Mr Bastos. “They love gadgets and they spend more time on the internet than their peers in other parts of the world. So the new population will shop online, compare funds online and do most of their investing online, rather than following the typical Latin American model of going to the branch and talking to a manager.” This kind of democratisation would undoubtedly bring down fees to retail investors, which are currently around 4 per cent upfront on fixed income funds.

As demand for international assets picks up, the international players are likely to grab market share via their natural advantages. “We have a plug-and-play platform that can be offered very quickly,” says Mr Bastos. But it could be some time yet before Brazilian investors wean themselves off domestic bonds. Asset managers currently operating in the country hope and believe the spoils will be shared among those that have stayed the course.

“These are long-term opportunities and you have to be committed for the long-term,” says Mr Hofmann. “For our Sao Paolo office, it is not make-or-break in the next 18 months. We have a history of 20-plus years investing and operating in emerging markets and we know they can take time to develop.”

This is part of a series on product distribution in emerging markets



To: THE ANT who wrote (1015)7/4/2012 12:07:46 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2504
 
Brazil Said to Plan Further Half-Point Rate Reductions

Traders are betting that the bank will lower the Selic another 50 basis points as its meeting next week, and at least 25 basis points in August, according to Bloomberg estimates based on interest-rate futures contracts.
By Raymond Colitt - Jul 4, 2012 12:32 PM GMT-0300




Brazil plans to maintain the pace of interest rate reductions at half-point intervals as the economy recovers more slowly than expected and Europe’s debt crisis remains a concern, a government official familiar with the bank’s deliberations said.

While the situation in Europe has stabilized in recent days, it and the U.S.’s fiscal situation are hurting the confidence of investors and consumers in Brazil, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to discuss monetary policy. Brazilian industrial output fell for a third straight month in May, a report showed yesterday.

Brazil’s central bank, which next decides rates on July 11, cut its benchmark Selic rate to a record low 8.5 percent in May. It was the fifth time in seven meetings that the central bank reduced borrowing costs by 50 basis points. Policy makers said in a quarterly inflation report last week that any future monetary easing would be carried out with “parsimony,”repeating language used in previous statements that analysts said signals rate reductions of a half point.

Traders are betting that the bank will lower the Selic another 50 basis points as its meeting next week, and at least 25 basis points in August, according to Bloomberg estimates based on interest-rate futures contracts.

The central bank could resume dollar purchases in the foreign exchange market and lower banks’ reserve requirements to ensure liquidity if needed, the official said.

Brazil’s real gained 2.7 percent since June 27, after logging the biggest losses against the U.S. dollar among major currencies tracked by Bloomberg in the previous three months.

The world’s sixth-largest economy grew slower than the government expected in the first quarter and is facing a difficult moment though growth will accelerate in the second half of the year, the official said.

The central bank in an e-mail declined to comment.