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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56761)	7/1/2012 9:15:37 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95378

OT-- Ring the bells and dance in the street for TARP European style. We called it E-TARP. Everyone was celebrating including the US. Stocks rallied 2-3% on the indices. Of course that raises the question about moral hazard. When the little girl in the cartoon asks Santa Claus whether the kids on the naughty list get a lump of coal, he says, "No, of course not. They get a bailout." Those who act irresponsibly are the ones we all have to pay for. I want to give a different perspective on this, which another poster on SI (see links below) first brought to my attention. The theme of "irresponsibility of southern Europe" has been touted a great deal, but there are other factors that should at least modify that view, IMHO. Lower energy prices will help everyone but a few exporters a great deal. The chart below illustrates, the bulk of the deterioration of Italy's trade deficit came from oil first (€60bn since 1999), and China second (€20bn). Excluding China and oil, Italy today runs a comfortable trade surplus that is almost twice as high as it was in 1999 in nominal terms, and that has remained roughly stable as % of GDP (3% to 4%). ELMAT: Lower oil price is a bonanza for EZ. Thus, the idea that the rise of Southern European trade deficits was essentially due to (or reflected in) intra-Eurozone trade imbalances is largely a myth. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from the German side of the equation, only 13% of the rise of German exports of the last decade went to Southern Europe. The additional consumption of Italian and Spanish households benefitted oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries first and foremost. And viewed from Message 28227311 And another post on Italy economic stats: Message 28226164