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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56768)	7/2/2012 4:10:30 PM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95450

Message 28242108 Analyst lowers chip market forecast for 2012 Peter Clarke 7/2/2012 1:05 PM EDT LONDON – Actual global chip sales for May 2012 are likely to be reported at about 3 percent lower than the same month in 2011, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway). The analyst has also revised down to flat his estimate for how the global chip market will perform in 2012 compared with 2011, falling in line with forecasts from the Semiconductor Industry Association and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. Diesen said he expects semiconductor sales to be unchanged this year and rise 7 percent in 2013 whereas previously he had forecast semiconductor sales in 2012 would show a 2 percent increase in dollars compared with 2011. Diesen's estimate for May would be a return to a year-on-year decline after April 2012 actual global sales at $23.85 billion were 1.1 percent ahead actual global sales in April 2011. Diesen predicted that the three-month average chip sales in May will be reported at $24.2 billion, slightly up on an equivalent figure in April of $24.1 billion. "Handset chips probably were one area that weakened in May after a strong April," Diesen said.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (56768)	7/2/2012 5:37:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95450

The market for the Semi sector has changed "character" since the end of May. The SOX seems to have its cycles every once in awhile in the 300 to 400 range. I am sure there are some factors that cause this, but as usual they are hard to discern before the cycle changes from up to down and vice versa. The SOX chart shows the weekly results over the past nine months. I like this chart as a summary look at what is going on in terms of cycle changes, and the weekly tables to look at some of the details from time to time. Starting in mid December, we had 15 weeks of an upward trend for the SOX. Why did we have this trend at this time, and why did it end the last week in Mar and turn "on a dime" to the downside the 1st week in April? IMO, first quarter results were going to be good and the market knew it. Then when the March quarter was over, the 2nd Calendar quarter started, and the earnings reports at the end of the quarter were estimated to be down significantly and the market "knew that". After 9 weeks in retreat during April and May, it again turned on a dime and started back up no matter what the news. The market is now expecting all of this "bad news" to end soon, and 2H12 is going to be much better in terms of earnings. We now have all of June with a solid uptrend for 4 weeks, and the 1st week in July that has just started looks like it might be to the upside as well. This is a 3 and 1/2 day trading week, and the small red candle at the right side of the chart is the results for today, Monday. Of course, the market does not operate in a vacuum and only concerned about earnings. Friday was a case in point, Europe announced it had "solved" its financial problems, and the market in it infinite wisdom, believed all this falderal and took off to the upside. Also coming up soon is the election process. On top of all that to look forward to, many of the market gurus say the market is "beaten down" and does not reflect its true value. And of course as we all know, there is a ton of cash on the sidelines, just waiting to jump into the market at the "right time". If I had to guess, I think the uptrend has a better chance of continuing upward than turn to the downside over the next several weeks. Remember, you heard it here first, and now that I have made that pronouncement, the "witches curse" has been applied to the market so it must go down.<VBG> Don