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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Dally who wrote (3578)	11/26/1997 3:52:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE:Every manufacturer will bleed until enough producers are driven out of business! IMO, the prospects are rather bleak for semi equipment manufacturers. Spoken like a man with 6 month or less investment horizon. If you are going short now, after the sector the has corrected 30%-40%, then I wish you a lot of luck, cause you are going to need it. Bob

To: John Dally who wrote (3578)	11/26/1997 7:51:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<Every manufacturer will bleed until enough producers are driven out of business! IMO, the prospects are rather bleak for semi equipment manufacturers.> Unfortunately, this is simple economics...there is no doubt that if there is less business, someone will get hurt. WILL there be less business? I dont know, but my guess would be that "leading edge next generation" types will do fine...however this asian thing is eye opening! I didnt realize to the extent to which this "uneconomic" investing and goverment support has been going on. I think people thinking that is will continue are ignoring reality...the "no limit poker game" is financed in some cases and although the firms themselves may understand they have to stay in the game, as so often happends the lenders and/or may not give a s---t. Another note...although I agree with all the cases made by the bullish camp....we have to remember that these stocks are not cheap on an earnings basis! They may become value stocks before its over if ignored by wall street. If you put 40% earnings growth into AMAT for 2 years followed by flat earnings for the next 5...whats it worth? Check it out for a reality check. Also, have a look at CYMER laser over the past few months for the effect downgrades and wall street turning its back on a stock can have! I'm not saying I'm bearish as "investments" but there seems to be a lot of people on these threads that will be upset if they don't make big bucks by January or whatever, and I think we have to be realistic. DAK