Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
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Tuesday, July 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Last week, the president received an immediate bounce following the Supreme Court ruling on his health care law. On the night of the ruling, the single night poll results were by far the best recorded for Obama in many months. Over the past few days, the numbers have returned to where they’ve been for most of the past month—Romney up slightly among likely voters in a very close race. See tracking history.
On the Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans now hold a narrow one-point advantage.
Political conservatives are following the election more closely than moderates or liberals. Fifty-one percent (51%) of conservatives are following the race daily. Among moderates, 32% are that interested. Thirty-four percent (34%) of liberals are paying that much attention. Interest in a campaign is often a leading indicator of turnout.
Platinum Members can review the level of interest by gender, age, race, party and other demographics on a daily basis. The Daily Snapshot also highlights the certainty of support for both candidates and other tracking information.
On the day before we celebrate the founding of our nation and the ratifying of the Declaration of Independence, Americans still believe in the founding ideals. Ninety-four percent (94%) believe “we are all endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights, among them life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
Eighty-two percent (82%) believe “all men are created equal.” Seventy percent (70%) agree that “governments derive their only just powers from the consent of the governed.” However, just 22% believe that the federal government actually has the consent of the governed today.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Rasmussen Reports will not conduct interviews on July 3-4. As a result, the next update of the Presidential Tracking Poll will be released on Friday, July 6. However, other polling data will be released each day, and results will be posted on the Rasmussen Reports home page.
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove ( see trends).
When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis. For the full month of June, the president’s Job Approval rating was 47%. During all of 2012, those ratings have stayed in a narrow range between 47% and 49% on a full month basis.
While the Supreme Court declared that the president’s health care law is constitutional, they were unable to make it popular. Fifty-two percent (52%) still favor repeal of the law. That’s little changed from a week ago and little changed since the law was passed more than two years ago. However, while most voters still hope for repeal, the belief that it will happen has fallen sharply. Just 39% now believe repeal is even somewhat likely, down from 61% last week.
Ratings for the Supreme Court have slipped since the health care ruling. A week ago, 36% said the high court was doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down to 33% today. The big change is a rise in negative perceptions. Today, 28% say the court is doing a poor job. That’s up 11 points over the past week.
A growing number (56%) now believe the justices pursue their own agendas rather than ruling on an impartial basis. Also, the number who see the high court as too liberal is up, while the number who see it as too conservative is down.
Political analyst Michael Barone writes that even though the health care law survived, the political playing field has changed. “It's not a winning issue for the incumbent,” he contends.
After reviewing the data, Scott Rasmussen concludes that the Supreme Court did nothing more than keep the health care law on life support. “It's important to remember that the law has already lost in the court of public opinion," he writes. "The Supreme Court ruling is a temporary reprieve more than anything else.”
If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
Looking to the Electoral College swing states, Obama leads in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney leads in North Carolina and Missouri. The race is a toss-up in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-three (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18 ( see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(More below)
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show-- What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.
Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology ( see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our " unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years. |
