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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	11/26/1997 3:43:00 PM
From: William T. Katz	Respond to of 9124

Can we force the issue of a split-off DLT company as shareholders? When is the next shareholders meeting? At the very least, the proposal would force the street to look more closely at the stock instead of blithely waving their hands at it, placing it in the "Disk Drive Junkyard." I'd like to see the DLT as one company, and I guess the NFR would be with the main DD company?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	11/26/1997 3:52:00 PM
From: Vanni Resta	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Z Analyzer, Now I beg to differ. The business school books are littered with cases in which "locked up" or "hidden" value was released through a spin off or de-merger. Look what happened to Lucent vs. ATT, just to mention one recent example. Lucent shot up after it was spun off, but ATT has lagged. So yes, rightly or wrongly, the market often does refuse to recognize a higher multiple for imbedded earnings streams. BTW, that 30 multiple on the tape portion, that is accurate, right? I have no idea what it should be. Happy Investing! Vanni

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	11/26/1997 4:46:00 PM
From: SeaViewer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Z: I totally agree with your analysis. I am in QNTM because it has DLT business which is hot. If QNTM only had DD business, I would have never bought its stock. DLT contributed $100 million operating income last quarter (30% operating income margin) as reported in the CC. That accounted for more than 60% of its total operating income. If the management executes its plan well this quarter, DLT could deliver $400+ million revenue (assume 100% increase from the same quarter last year) and approximately $120 million operating income. Using 26% tax rate (the same as last quarter), it gives $88.8 million net income, or $0.51 per share fully diluted for the quarter. As I wrote in a previous post, anyone can compare QNTM' DLT with IOM. DLT was more profitable (on per share basis) and projected with a faster growth rate, but QNTM share, as a whole company, is selling at a less price. What a market efficiency! Jeff

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	11/26/1997 8:50:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Z Analyzer: Your logic sounds quite rational. Some Wall Street fund managers are still confused about QNTM being the DD sector leader. This may show their naivete. But, most QNTM shares are still held by the big players in the WS. I think Vanni's opinion is merely a reflection of the Wall Street's response to the DD sector. Whether the WS should give a higher multiple to QNTM can be easily known when we have a rise in the price. [Incidentally, on the day QNTM rose 13%, Vanni's wish was he held QNTM shares.] Until then, any justification of the current multiple being right is simply tautological as it conveys no more information than the market price. If spinning the DLT business will generate a greater shareholder value, QNTM may already be thinking about it and may even implement it. From the fact that SEG is not being trashed despite its recent losses indicates to me that the down-side risk for QNTM is very limited while the upside potential is much higher than that for SEG and WDC. It is time to accumulate QNTM, IMO!! Sankar

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	11/26/1997 11:06:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Okay dude, here's the deal. If you want something done right, you do it yourself. You and I round up some cash and find a couple bankers, preferably from Goldman. We'll lever ourselves a buyout, 80's style. You manage bringing DLT public again; I'll take care of the day-to-day HD operation. Hehehe... if we play our cards right, we might just end up owning MKE. Whaddaya think, buddy?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (5730)	12/2/1997 11:49:00 AM
From: still learning	Respond to of 9124

Z- I know you've posted your details many times, but could you put up your current best estimates of DLT net income for last Qtr, and DD net income for last Qtr (everything but DLT, including heads)? Thanks a million FYI, in my view a blended PE IS the way to go, but I think 23 is still too high. DLT will not ever be valued as a standalone. I know your analysis well on spinning it off to get a better DLT multiple. Fact is, they're not going to spin it off, nor IMHO should they. While it might lead to a higher valuation short term, it would be held to current growth rates long term and when they inevitably slow, would end up like JBIL, or COMS, crucufied for saying their income would eventually slow to 35%. (admittedly COMS has other issues, too). That said, QNTM should, even in the worst of times, get a multiple somewhere between the "historical DD norm" and your DLT/DD blended PE. BTW, I disagree with Vanni's assessment that, because SEG and WDC are currently at about 9X current PE (an afteraffect of very bad times) that we should use that as the norm. I believe the historical norm is closer to the 11 you idendified. I would say DLT gets discounted to 50-70% of its PEG, to create a safety net. I know you've posted your details many times, but could you put up your current best estimates of DLT net income for last Qtr, and DD net income for last Qtr (everything but DLT, including heads)? Thanks a million