Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Dally who wrote (3580)	11/26/1997 4:33:00 PM
From: FJB	Respond to of 10921

Hello John, I've been monitoring the Achilles site for a couple years, because I agree that DRAM pricing is critical. The most significant impact I see is that cost/good die and a focus on more differentiated products will become the primary goals of the large DRAM makers. Of course, this has already occured since DRAM has been weak for some time. Yes, less new fabs will be built, but in an effort to be profitable at the 64Mb game, the big boys will have to shrink their parts which will require heavy investment in new process technology. Just another fact of life in the semiconductor industry though. Less fab building and more upgrading of current infrastructure is what is happening. The strategic importance the Taiwanese, Koreans, and Japanese place on the IC industry can not be underestimated IMHO. Which semi-manufacturers do yo think will "bail out"? If you were to short some semi-equips right now, what are your picks? Best regards to you also, Bob

To: John Dally who wrote (3580)	11/26/1997 5:16:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

John, Are you seeing something new or different in the price trend than has been the case for close to 3 decades? Near 1970, 1/4MB of core memory cost close to $2M. By 1975, 1MB of CMOS could be had for less than $0.25M. That trend has continued ever since. Greater volumes have been produced. Smaller feature sizes on larger wafers have resulted in continuous cost reduction for greater output. Are you suggesting something different has been or is about to happen? If so, what? Ian