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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (48639)	7/8/2012 10:16:56 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

Re Laz,you may hAve less risk than with GS just to drop a name, but you also pay 15x earnings and 10x book for a business with lumpy returns that still is dependent on the health of the credit markets. I think I'd rather take my chance and buy GS below tangible book, at least I can easily see tham making 20$/share in a decent year and they are good about managing risk.

To: Sergio H who wrote (48639)	7/8/2012 10:28:23 PM
From: Spekulatius	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

Re BX- looks like you have to deal with a K-1 tax form if you buy BX units? One thing thatirks me about these asset managers is the dilution (unit count increased mor than 10% YOY) that seems to be inherent with these private equity asset managers. The unit issue seems to be nothing than disguised compensation to me, and I noted that in some cases, the unit count increases faster than assets under management. It's hard to create value for the unit holders with a framework like that. The dilution is the reason why I am taking a pass on them, I looked at BX, FIG and OZM. I noticed that some value investors seem to like them but I think most of them seem to ignore the dilution, or believe this is due one off items. I think it is inherent and create a big headwind for the unit holders.

To: Sergio H who wrote (48639)	7/9/2012 1:15:59 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) goo.gl Hi Sergio - Trying to figure out you over valuation thesis for ABT and MRK. I own both and peeled off a few shares of MRK in 2/2/1012 at $38.55 thinking it was at the high end of it's value range. Both ABT & MRK continue to run higher (more than 10% from my last sale). It appears that the market likes the drug companies again especially after the Supreme Court ruling on health care. I am not sure what it all means other than the value metrics we are looking at are not the ones Mr. market is viewing. I am not buying at these levels but I will continue to hold. Can you be a little more specific as to why ABT and/or MRK are considered over valued in your opinion. Here was my reason why I though MRK was fairly valued at $38.55/share on 2/2012 ( goo.gl ). I based my opinion on the GN value. Maybe I need to recalculate using the EKS$ (which is based on future earnings). Perhaps an additional value should be added for being a beneficiary of the Obama care legislation. For now, it is probably too late to find new values in this sector except for one or more of the medical equipment stocks like BDX and/or MDT. EKS

To: Sergio H who wrote (48639)	7/10/2012 11:46:22 AM
From: NikhilJog	Respond to of 78717

On BX - becoming landlords is not bad, however, you are becoming landlords at the tailend of the housing cycle or at the point where the cycle is about 75% complete. Furthermore, even if this is very lucrative, how much of this is part of the overall book? these are important questions to look into. But long term, exposure to real estate might benefit BX and when i say LT i mean 5 -7 years. However, if the current price is where i want to buy BX at? - now thats a different story. Just some thoughts.

To: Sergio H who wrote (48639)	7/24/2012 4:23:01 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78717

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE)- Peeled off a few of my high priced shares (about 15% of shares) Still a top 10 position in the portfolio Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. (Other OTC: AMNF) Sold 2.5% of higher priced shares but have a standing order in to sell up to 20% at current prices. goo.gl Booked some PFE profit as it hit near it's EKS$ value of $23.50/share. This is a hard one to determine fair value as their TBV is negative because of acquisitions. But using BV $11.11 and EPS of $2.21 my EKS$ is $23.50. Stock is near it's 52wk high too of $23.87. AMNF continues to be a good hold. They have paid a quarterly dividend for over 10 year of around 5%. Company continues to post higher revenues w/ last quarter exceeding all record sales. This is my first small sale since my first buy in 10/2011 at $0.64/share. I sold some of my high priced shares that allowed me to book a small profit. I am a net seller for most of my stocks as I see world economies contracting. There are still special "value" situations but I have to have some very compelling arguments for me to commit new monies at this time. GLW, ABB and MHR are near my buy targets but for me, no hurry to accumulate more shares and/or start a tracking position (in ABB) at this time. EKS