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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (12172)	11/26/1997 8:32:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 70976

Kumar, Your argument is valid, technology is a necessity and will continualy become more pervasive in everyday life. I must also give credit to Mohan's argument, since it parallels Dave Dhillon's and mine. Even though fabs need to upgrade to stay competitive they also must show profitability year after year, that is their reason for existence-profits. You also know that it takes profits, + the anticipation for future profits, in order to aquire the financing required to purchase the newest equipment and build new fabs. This issue is a "Double edged sword of Damacles" (to borrow from Greek mythology) hanging above the heads of fab managers and financiers, whether to invest in the face of heavy competition and uncertain economic times, or to wait a while and strenthen your economic situation before making the necessary investment in new technology? Unfortunately, the profit motivation usually takes precedence and the decision becomes, to wait/delay/postpone on expensive upgrades until the financial situation looks better. Just my opinion, BB

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (12172)	11/26/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Kumar, Following what CEO Morgan said, "Amat will continue to grow tremendeously through the next decade" what do anticipate/dream that we will see with the semi technology during the next decade? Those of you working in the semiconductor sector in your reading and other sources have a greater idea than we laypersons. Thanks for your comments. Paul V.

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (12172)	11/27/1997 11:40:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Kumar, I am a systems guy with enough interest in finance to help me make money in the stock market. On Most occassions fabs capacity is booked in advance based on their technological roadmap. This forces fabs to go towards the latest/greatest tools. From what I have observed from the notoriously cyclical semiconductor industry is that, more often than not, the fab capacities are double booked and later cancelled. The overbooking causes the fabs to expand beyond the actual end-user demand. Despite every cycle being termed as "this time it is different" by new enthusiasts, it tourned out, it was never different. Boom and bust is the name of the game here. We have had a mini-boom which caused all the recent excitement wich is much bigger than the previous euphorias. As far as I am concerned, I have no doubt in my mind that we are eaded in to a big-bust! -Mohan

To: Kumar Nathan who wrote (12172)	11/27/1997 1:05:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 70976

Kumar, as a financier, you may not be familiar with the real weight of Si chips: <<Your watch will contain 5-10 grams of silicon chips Your Car Key will have 5 grams of silicon chips Your Calculator will have at least 10 grams of silicon. YOur cell phone probably will have at least 20 grams of silicon chips.>> A watch, or a calculator has ~ 0.05 grams of Si, a cell phone can have up to ten times as much, 0.5 g, and often some GaAs. That is, if you don't include plastic and copper as silicon. However, your point about financial implications of weight of Si escapes me. Joe