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Strategies & Market Trends : Charts With An Attitude; Trading In & Out -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldHack who wrote (4102)	11/27/1997 12:21:00 AM
From: Esteban	Respond to of 4701

OH, Yes, I watch the charts real time, and quite intensely at that. One of the beautiful things about SPY is that you can short on a downtick, there's no limitation on shorting unless your broker doesn't have the shares. I don't think the Hang Seng activity biased the results because I'm basing the system on both long and short positions. My intention at first is to use the long signals just to cover, but keep track of the longs as if they were a trade. The test period results include both long and short positions. The periods that I referred to where I day traded based on the PSE index were mostly bullish. In any case, I agree that the 30 day period may have been a "good period" for my system, whatever the reason. I feel I'm ready to put real money on the line here, the only true test. It's important to factor in the real money psychology that can cloud one's judgement out of greed or fear. It also cancels the fill price question, which can skew the results if it's all on paper. Glad your interested. I'll update you periodically. Esteban

To: OldHack who wrote (4102)	11/28/1997 12:41:00 PM
From: Esteban	Respond to of 4701

OH, Re: 60 to 70% is an OUTSTANDING percentage. Just to be clear, the 60-70% is NOT a value for predicting major declines or advances. It measures success by whether the trade the signal triggered was profitable or not, however small. It appears that the frequency of signals average about 3 per week. Keep in mind that traders everywhere are developing systems to trade the S&P 500 all the time, and that most of them fail. So don't hold your breath as you watch my SPY trading. I do however have a different goal than most. I can break even at this and consider the experiment a success if I find myself short the market with reasonably frequency when the market corrects a bit. In other words if the whipsaw effect of the frequent signals erodes the profit potential, I'll still be satisfied if the idea that intraday trends lead daily moves is proven valid. Esteban