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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BamaReb who wrote (5422)	11/26/1997 10:29:00 PM
From: qdog	Respond to of 11888

Well, in the late 80's we had an over abundance and the price of WTI was below $15/barrel. Sure, if the consumer decides they are tired of driving gas guzzlers and shift back to more efficent cars, then there is an immediate decline in usage. Sometimes the words used are puzzling. Some say there is a shortage of crude and others say there is an increase in demand. I maintain the later. However, that's at the mercy of the fickle consumer. API reported yesterday evening that crude stocks and refined products increased, to the surpise of the commodity boys (I caught a brief statement on Bloomberg this morning). Saw midday that crude was down $.33. FYI, API usually pronounce the energy stock weekly on Tuesday evening. It's the mover of the Merc on oil, gasoline, heating, etc.

To: BamaReb who wrote (5422)	12/1/1997 3:10:00 PM
From: qdog	Respond to of 11888

Well, let's follow this up after the long weekend. OPEC is doing a pre-emptive strike. Raising production quota's, by a higher amount than anticipated. Shades of mid 80's, when Saudi single handily forced prices to low teens?? Well, I don't think it's quite that dire, but near term future contract is now at below $19/barrel. That is significantly lower than a year ago. Then you have the Iraq story. Some interesting games being played. Seems their maybe some yielding in increasing their ability to sell more oil, based on dollar amounts, for humanitarian purposes. In otherwords, if they are allowed to sell $2 billion, for example, at the declining prices, that means more day production to meet that dollar amount. Again, that has to be a short term negative for the commodity traders. Then there is Russia. This is excluding the FSU. In talking with my sister soemwhat this weekend, the companies in Russia, such as Lukoil and Gasprom, are becoming very powerful players and producers. There is some movement on encouraging investment from outside Russia, but it still an unclear situation in the Duma. Bottomline, Russia today, is still a vast country of larfe land area. There is still vast amounts of area that is virgin and under explore or produced. With their production increasing, this is another longer term negative trend to add to the price of crude. It's beneficial to downstream operators such as chemicals and product producers. A bit negative for services and pure producers. Effect on AIPN? Well, if the cost of exploration keeps increasing and the price of the crude is declining, then you could see exploration being curtailed somewhat. However, you do have the US governement "encouraging" exploration of the Caspian.