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To: KaiserSosze who wrote (109176)	7/18/2012 5:56:08 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 118717

Yeah, the preliminary Q2 results don't look "AGNC super duper" at all. Book value up only 1% or so to $29.35. That's not too good at all. I read a research report the other day estimating that AGNC's book value might have risen as high as $35 (seriously), so I think anyone paying attention to change in book value will see a 1% gain as a disappointment. CYS reported preliminary Q2 results before its offering a week ago, and its book value was estimated to be up 3%. Spread income was only 94 cents, so AGNC didn't cover the $1.25 dividend. Just comparing CYS and AGNC, it's hard to make the case for AGNC with these quarterly results. Assuming AGNC is $34.50 and CYS is $14.15..... AGNC is at 1.17x book value whereas CYS is at 1.05x book value. Both yield ~14% if they maintain the latest dividend. CYS grew book value more than AGNC in the last reported Q. Both have just done offerings. Why buy AGNC rather than CYS here? I don't know what it will take to pop the AGNC bubble, but it will still be expensive relative to all the other mREITs at 1.1x book, which would be a share price of #32.25. If they can only grow the book value by 1% per quarter the justification for a premium rapidly vanishes. ARR at $7.35 yields 16% and is only at 1.08x Q1 book value, which has likely increased in Q2. ---- I think you made the right decision to sell, but we'll see. Lots of people love AGNC, so they may just ignore this and buy it back up?