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To: RetiredNow who wrote (117471)7/25/2012 3:53:45 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 149317
 
CRI was actually dead on. We are slowing down dramatically right now, just as they have been saying for 9 months would happen.

Oh and housing is NOT recovering very well:

Housing Data “Surprises” to Downside (Permits, Starts & Completions)


Don't BS, MM.........ECRI didn't say slow down......they said recession. They have been making that call officially since last Sept and unofficially since a year ago Spring. Their formula isn't working because this recession is not like the ones since WW II.......and they are afraid to admit to it.

I wanted to quickly todays New Home Sales in context of some longer term charts of Permits, Starts & Completions. We get more Permits than Starts, and a few more Starts then Completions.

Note that current levels of
Permits, Starts & Completions are still far below the absolute bottoms of prior Housing Cycles in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s (despite the population being much larger today).

But the full charts puts the entire “turnaround” meme into broader context.
Its bullocks.

Ritholtz doesn't mention that inventory is at an all time low and that banks are making it nearly impossible to get financing or requiring very large downs. Like I said up above, this recession is like none we've seen since WW II.

Your gurus are failing you because they have an agenda.