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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (18766)	11/27/1997 3:56:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 42771

Paul, Couldn't agree with you more. There is peril in the Asian problem. 20% of our exports go there and they are 25% of the world economy. The currency problem is now spreading to India. With the trade deficit we have today, what will it look like if Asia can no longer afford our products and begin dumping even more of their products here. Even if there is no problem with running long term trade deficits as the Establishment economists would like everyone to believe, there is surely going to be a slowdown in our economy if they can't continue to buy from us. Anyone looking for an interesting discussion of world economics should tune into CNBC at 6:30PM EST either Saturday or Sunday, every week. "Strictly Business" panel members are Jim Rogers, Lawrence Kudlow, and Bill Wolman, or capable substitutes. Very lively with diverse opinions freely given. There was also a ton of information in section A of the Wednesday Nov. 26 Wall Street Journal about the Asian situation. Including a story about the mountain of excess products in Asia with no markets or demand. Some of the Gold threads have interesting discussions, although they tend to make you look quite cheery in comparison. Finally it's a waste of time to warn people about the stock market. They will have to suffer through losses, like others have always done in the past. Everyone is in for the long term, remember? Just like the Japanese were in 1989. They were never going to sell either. But within a couple of years of the top in that market, Japanese mutual funds had lost 92% of their assets. With stocks down only 60%, the balance was due to long term investors bailing as they began to feel the pain. Sure that was different, they weren't as smart as we are. And neither were we as smart in the late 60's and 70's, in 1929, in 1914, etc., etc., etc. Investors are much smarter today. Look who has taught them, the investment industry. The people selling them the investments. Would anyone go ask a car salesman about how how to get the best deal on a car? Don't think so. Oh, well!! (Maybe you could post links to FT and the others you mention) Dwight

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (18766)	11/28/1997 12:17:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Paul, Dwight, (off topic) Thanks for sharing your views and information. Very sobering. I can kind of see some of the things happening but haven't been investing long enough to actually "experience" what's going on. It makes a difference. Every long trade I do these days feels like a risk of epic proportions. I recall reading that gold futures are one of the leading indicators of market trends. From recent news items, I see gold prices are at a 12 year low. It looks like world markets were slightly up on low volume while we are on holiday. I guess everyone wants to see how the americans feel after killing enough turkey to feed half of China. I understand there are some economic numbers due tomorrow. That's another area that I have a hard time interpreting. I pretty much depend on the articles to tell me if the news is good or bad. Unfortunately there isn't a 1 to 10 scale to tell how "good" or "bad" the news is. Things generally look like we should have a few up days starting tomorrow. I'm going to start trying to hold cash more often than stock and just target rebounds from lower support levels on day trades. I also figure on putting together a small portfolio of put options on short term run ups. I don't know how well that will work but it seems like it should cover my back in the event of a crash. Any opinions on time frames or if the Asian situation is fixable? Regards, Don