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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (117487)	7/25/2012 10:24:25 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

With GDP there is a first report formerly called a Flash report, now called the Advance Estimate, then a "second" revision and then a "third" revision just before the end of the next quarter. The latest "third" revision" was on June 28. People are already considering the following quarter's numbers by the 4th month. The Advance Estimate for Q2 is out this Friday. A slowdown is not a decline. A slowdown to 1.2% for instance would not be enough to make it a recession. A slowdown to 0.2% wouldn't make it either. Slowdowns, or massive slowdowns don't cut it, unless they are negative for a quarter, and usually for 2 quarters. You could have a 4-month decline that is not even 1 calendar quarter. A common way of teaching it is to compare velocity to acceleration. Negative acceleration (a decline in a rate) as they have had recently in China, is not negative velocity (growth). ECRI is still out on a limb. And Ben Bernanke is ready to act if it's necessary. He knows there's a 9-month lag to have an effect from anything he does. And he cannot know if Congress will be responsible or irresponsible in the lame duck session.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (117487)	7/26/2012 11:48:02 AM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

gain, you are looking at the tree, not the forest. They said we'd likely see a recession start in the first half of 2012. First of all, technically, that has not happened yet, although we won't know for sure, because the GDP numbers continue to get revised 6 months after the first post. Second, we are already seeing a massive slowdown. So if the recession starts in Q3 instead of Q2, who cares if they missed by a quarter? They forecasted in 9 months ago. That's one hell of good forecast. They gave you plenty of time to position yourself properly. So it's kind of silly to keep looking at the tree and miss the forest. There was no recession in the first half........PERIOD. ECRI was wrong. And ECRI last spring claimed that we would have a recession in the second half of 2011. Again, they were wrong. There magic formula appears not to be working. Its you that seems confused by the forest and the trees.