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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (3593)	11/27/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Bob! Re short picks I wasn't very scientific. I felt the entire market was overvalued this summer so I looked for the industry with the greatest appreciation over the previous 12 months for shorts. What stood out was the SOX, up from ~150 last summer to ~400 this summer, +166% in 12 months!!! Next, how to choose from dozens of industry participants? I decided if this summer was exuberance, then someday in the future, the market would feel despair again. Since the last time small cap tech stocks felt despair was this April, I looked at charts searching for semi companies which had appreciated 100+% between April and September. There were a bunch: ASMLF, ASYT, CMOS, ESIO, ORBKF, . . . They're now down a lot. Have they bottomed? I don't know, but given that everything was actually OK this April, and given that Asia is turning out to be a major problem, I expect to see April's prices sometime in the future. OK, so go ahead and make fun of me . . . Got to go to TG, I'll read the jeers when I get back! Best Regards, John.