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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3597)	11/28/1997 10:14:00 AM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Ian, I know you'll set me straight, wasn't the historical drop in DRAM price ~30% per year? It seems like just two weeks ago I looked at the Achilles site and saw 16 Mb DRAM at $3.90, last week it was $3.46, and now it's $3.10. What do you think is happening? Is demand softening in Q4? Or, has additional production capacity come on line? True, lower marginal costs can be achieved by investing in capital equipment, however, businesses also need to earn a return on their cap ex investments. Doesn't a steeper than expected decline in price imply that many previously planned (& announced) projects are no longer profitable? Last, the Korean manufacturers expanded production through debt. Today, they are being asked to pay the money back. It's hard to buy when you have no credit. Where's the money going to come from? Best Regards, John.