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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph G. who wrote (9635)	11/27/1997 8:05:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

Joseph, as far as Moore is concerned, we will need to get into a completely different approach (non silicon), since very soon we will approach to boudaries of interatomic distances (we are now pushing to the .1 micron or 1000 angstrom, wich is only about 200 atomic spacings. IBM is experimenting with lossless electron hopping at the single atomic spacing, but it will be a good ten years before that comes through. Another false hope was the possible presence of ambient superconductors, but 10 years after the Bednorz/Miller breakthrough, we are still well in the cryogenic zone. So, yes, Moore's law is flattening out. That means that equipment will survive longer (no rapid technological changes for a while), which will eventually be good for semi producers but not too good for the semi-caps. As far as the socio economical environment, sure no one knows, but one thing is quite clear, the world has reduced its overall defense expenditure per year by a trillion bucks or more, since there was no corresponding contraction in the world "gross product", these resources have gone to improve the average wealth, whatever its unequal distribution. This seems to be a fact, not a fiction. It is also a fact that China is moving ever so slowly to a decentralized and profit motivated economy. It is also a fact that the former soviet union (and its satellites) is undergoing a process of capital accumulation (which according to good all Marx, is the prerequisite for a capitalistic system), albeit in the hands of bandits and underground mafioso (but, then, in the early days of our independence a lot of capital accumulation and centralization was in the hands of various Buchanneers and other types of pirates). So, as far as I can see, the processes are in place to create conmsumer societies in a good 70% of the world where there were none. QED. Zeev