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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (2105)	8/1/2012 12:44:24 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4719

ADM clearly has some headwinds to deal with. I mentioned this in my writeup, as I expected weak results this quarter and this is the reason why I have not purchased the stock myself. I do think that there is a very good value in ADM, the business is there to stay and we will see better results going forward. as for value, ADM's tangible book is ~27$/share and a lot of these assets are grain terminals, storage and crushing facilities etc. which most likely cost more than book value to replace. As one of the largest companies in the AG chain, I think they will be in business 50 years from now and most likely will make profits that grow with their business volume +inflation rate going forward. Not many companies have a business model with such an extremely high longevity. That is what makes ADM attractive as a long term investment. I think the stock will base out somewhat lower than the current prices and I intend to buy in the 24-25$ range. I don't see a reason to withdraw the stock at all, we will get a good entry price for the contest. I like this better than with my PH pick, which is up ~10% since I nominated it.