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To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (35915)	8/3/2012 11:02:26 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Respond to of 218450

You are fortunate >>>> And so I eat crow again. because even crows seem an essential part of the dream we all live. Randomness is a strange beast. By definition, an event is random if the probability of its occurrence on any trial is exactly 1/2. When you board a plane, you almost certainly wonder about something possibly going wrong. If you are told that the probability of failure is 0.000001 (one in a million) you may feel secure. It does not mean that one in a million shot will not hit. It only means that, on average, one shot will hit in one million trials. Humans are generally poor at estimation (witness the world's problems). Even worse, while we intuitively estimate based on repeated trials in which conditions are the same, conditions are never really the same. The only constant in this crow-eating dream world is change. Change seems to be the energy that feeds the universe or universal dream. Like airplanes, markets seem predictable.