Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (93191)	8/7/2012 10:39:08 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Respond to of 217759

Of course that's right: <As usual, it depends on the time frame, which you ignore. There're dozens of times frames which can be studied. > That's the nature of trying to guess the correct price of things. As the old saw goes, in the long run the share market is a weighing machine, in the short run a voting machine. After the fact, you can pick out periods where one or the other went ahead. But that's the voting, speculative aspect. I'm not ignoring the variable time frames, I'm smoothing the fluctuations to get to the underlying action, like smoothing the number of sunspots to get to the real output of the sun. The problem with such smoothing is that when the rules change and the sun is going supernova, or a share is going the same way, the history is irrelevant. Like flipping into a reglaciation in 2020 = summer normally follows winter but winter might start to follow winter. I too bought gold [last year] and got great returns compared with my Qualcomm investment over the same time. But that's just speculative sooth-saying, not investment. There was no net gain to the world by me transferring money from somebody else to me [except that I might do something more useful with the money - or possibly worse]. Whereas my relatively static Qualcomm shares represented fantastic gains to billions of people as the mobile Cyberspace era took off. Gold can ONLY make money for somebody by somebody else losing in a zero sum game. It cannot earn a return on investment. QCOM on the other hand can be a zero sum game as well as providing a return on investment by providing hordes of people with useful functionality. Gold is a win-lose investment. QCOM is a win-win-win-Winn investment, with all parties winning. Mqurice