To: carranza2 who wrote (93199 ) 8/7/2012 1:16:40 PM From: Maurice Winn 2 Recommendations Respond to of 219732 I did not profit from the speculative mania. To do that, I would have had to sell. <speculative manias are socially worthless, economically insane, etc., but there is nothing inherently wrong in anticipating and profiting from them, as we both did > I only sold some on the way down when it became apparent that the bust could be much more than the crunch I had been expecting since May 1999 with many rants by me month after month predicting it. NZ had capital gains tax laws which meant that tax free gains could have been taxable. I'm all for being a noble speculator, taking huge risks at the top and bottom to provide liquidity and smooth the peaks and troughs to help minimize losses by those who choose to or are forced to sell. Unfortunately, nobody rings a bell at the top, or at the bottom, to warn everyone that that's it. So recognizing peaks and troughs early is not a slam dunk, though some people are better at it than others. Or they are lucky. Actually, human nature does change. And it changes quite a lot. <No one will prevent manias just as surely as human nature will never change > Just the Flynn Effect over the last 100 years is an example of how major the changes can be. But a more extreme demonstration of the change in human nature is the obvious transition from our chimpoid antecedents to how we are now. There are broad similarities of course, such as my hairy arms, prehensile fingers, and stupid grin bear more than a passing resemblance to chimps, but there are also huge differences such as I know to use the toilet in an A380, and don't try to open the door at 10km/1000 km/hr, or mate with the hostesses. Manias are being moderated by the supersonic high speed algorithm stock market climate models. It's noble work and as that Knight company found, can go awry and cost shareholders everything. Mqurice