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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gonzongo who wrote (7118)	11/28/1997 2:32:00 PM
From: David Russell Coburn II	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

Dear Mr. Gabor, The truth: Even if the chart looked great I probably wouldn't trade it due to its' price range (reward/risk). Also my experience with really big large caps is extremely limited so I'm not sure my techniques would work. Obviously my lack of confidence in this type of trade should be enough to keep me out of it. The chart: The first thing I notice about the chart is for the past few years WMT seems to come under selling pressure in early January. If the chart showed evidence of getting 25% before year end and I traded these stocks I might be tempted. I don't see this evidence, as a matter of fact when I draw a Linear Regression line which emcompases the current "trading range" of the stock I see that the stock is overbought. To be more specific I drew a LR on the close between 7/9 and 11/26. The endpoint is at $37.25 which also happens to be the current value of the 50EMA. We are currently sitting at 39.875. Also put your WOW on weekly and look at the last two bars. Last week you had one of those indecisive Japanese thingamabobs and this week you closed lower. Now lets pretend that the correction didn't even happen, (still on weekly). I see a nice slow rising trading channel but you are currently at its' peak. So even if the stock doesn't correct in January I think now would be a bad time to enter. I think Gann wants to take it to $38 if it stays strong and possibly $34 or lower if it corrects. Just from looking if it hits $34 without a good bounce I would look for $30. Volume has been decreasing ever since it failed to rally back to the trend in early September. In fact the 21SMA is the lowest its been since April 96. net net: I have never shorted a stock but if you and Richard chased me down tied me up over a hot flame and made me trade it. I would probably short it.<gg> All the way down to $37-36 or lower. Now that I've said all of the above it is sure to be a double by January. Now for a few that I have: AINN: in Monday at 6.375 and will probably be out around 8 HAUP: in Friday(today) at 5.25 and will be looking to exit around 6.25. I think we'll be coming into resistance soon but it should get a nice pop on Monday, we'll see. If it closes at the high on Monday I'll just chase it with stops for an exit. More likely will exit Monday sometime. RECY: in awhile back at $7.5 already sold some at 8 and will add at 8.125 on good volume, stop at $7, exit trade on breakdown of trend. Should have sold it all at $8.25 but my emotions got in the way. Charts I was watching today: RECY(), AINN(), ANIK, APCO, CADE, CLGY(), DDRX(), DRNK, HAUP, LEAF, PDSF(), PENC(), SRGE(), TOMM, TTNP ( means I really like it) You can see from the above that I like to work good breakouts, and the big correction bounces on previously very strong stocks. What do you see in WMT. What others are you following? David