InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary - ECRI Update: 'We are in Recession'
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- Weak Chinese exports slow the market rally. Yeah, right.
- Some say 'get out!' of the market. Again? Who is left?
- ECRI Update: 'We are in recession'
- And the key is . . . still no jobs.
- Of course the market has to test from here, right?
Chinese exports blamed for the sluggish market.
Friday we were told the market was sluggish because Chinese exports were down. It was just a 1% growth rate versus 8% expected. Exports to Europe were down 16%. Surely the market was feeding off of that bad news. But hold on. This entire move has been based in part upon the thesis that China was slowing and would have to come forth with more economic stimulus. Earlier this week the market supposedly rallied due to a weaker China and the need for stimulus. So what the heck is going on? It is the usual game of "pin the tail on the reason for the market action" that the financial stations play every day. You cannot listen to what the financial stations and experts are saying. Number one, most of them are talking their own book. Number two, a bunch of journalism majors out there are reading what the little parrots (who are talking their own book) are whispering into their ears.
Thus we get the incongruous results. One day the market rallies on the fact that China is weak and may have to come up with stimulus, and the ECB and the US may come up with stimulus. Then on another day in the same week, it is supposedly down for the very same reasons. Thus you see my somewhat humorous pictures of the Chinese representative telling Joe Biden saying, "Sorry, but we will not be able to buy as many Treasuries as you may have wanted." And then you see the China ship listing because it has been buying so many US Treasuries. Let's face it: If China has a serious economic slowdown, it will not want to buy as many. It will not have to because it won't have to support such a huge trade deficit. And if China's people decide that they are consumers, that they actually have wealth, we could have the same problem again.
In any event, this was the news blamed for a relatively sluggish session in the market. But it was not that sluggish. While the market did start lower, and futures were even negative, basically they rallied from the open. While it was lackluster, they did spurt higher late in the day. That brought nearly all of the indices back to positive. It was sluggish, but it was not necessarily because of China.
SP500, +0.22%; NASDAQ, +0.07%; Dow, +0.32; SP600, -0.11%; SOX, +0.49%.
It was sluggish, but they did come back. But sluggish because of China? They rallied earlier in the week because of China. Could it possibly be the result of a good move to the upside right below prior post-bear market highs and let need for a bit of consolidation? Yes. As I discussed on Thursday, this is good action. A lateral move, consolidating, reaching lower, and then the rebound on Friday. It shows that that the buyers are still there. The sellers are absent, and the market is just taking a pause. Perhaps it is a pause that refreshes.
Time to Get Out! of the market?
Some are saying 'Get Out!' Not so fast.
I am struck in the last couple of days by a lot of people saying to simply get out of the market. I have the Amityville Horror poster saying "For God's sake, get out!" but is it really that bad? Is the market ready to implode? Looking at the economic conditions, things are not great by any stretch. We will see the GDP get written down from 1.5%, which is already terrible. Consumption data as well as the Wholesale Inventories were grossly miss-guessed in the first iteration, and they will come down. We could already be in recession -- even the technical, textbook version of it.
Do we really need to get out just because of that? Typically, yes, but we have something else on the table that I have talked about extensively. Indeed, this whole rally has been based on this Fed injection. We may get something from the Chinese now. Europe is sure that it will do something any day. We were told that on Friday. And the US is still there if things do not improve; in other words, if the trumped-up jobs report that shows 163K jobs gets to the point where they cannot even make up numbers as they did this July. Then we will have US stimulus coming as well. That is what the market is rising upon.
Longer term, things do not look good for the economy. It cannot continue to escape death simply by the Fed promising money injections, and even injecting money into the system. As we have seen for the last three years, that keeps things alive and stumbling along on a liquidity hydroplane, but it does not get you to sustained, supportable, and expanding economic growth.
But nearer term, it is that liquidity that is doing the trick for financial assets. It is the very fact that the economy is so bad that the liquidity is keeping the market higher. On CNBC Thursday, Art Cashin discussed how there are piles of cash on the sidelines not being utilized. Banks get them. They have the money, but they don't want to lend it because they want to put the money into sure things. There are the bond deals, etc. where they can get guaranteed income. Even those that have good enough credit scores to borrow are not borrowing. What would they do with the money? Business is not good enough. They are not going to hire anybody due to regulations and the uncertainty and expense associated with them.
So the money sits there, but not really. Remember, I said that the banks invest it to make sure returns. That is why we are seeing oil go up, gold rise, and why we see commodities starting to rise again. That is why stocks are higher as well. The money is not all left in the vault; it is put into the stock market. In the near term, that is exactly why we are seeing the market rise. The economy? No. It does not support this move one iota. Indeed, the small caps are lagging this move because of that. They are showing us that this is not a great economy. It is all about the dollar. And it is not its value, but the dollars that the Fed is printing or putting into the system through low interest rates, through Operation Twist, and through repos that we saw last week that pumped $500M into the market just like that.
So we were told that the market is a bit sluggish for the past couple of days because of this China thing. No, the China thing, along with other things affecting the other economies, is what is keeping the stock markets around the world moving higher right now. It is the promise of (and the fact of) excess liquidity in the system.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. 1.2295 versus 1.2293 euro. The dollar was flat. The dollar overall is somewhat higher on the week, but it is still in a downtrend over the past three weeks. That does not mean it is in a downtrend overall. It is trying to move higher, although it could see an abrupt and ugly entry if the Fed does anything. Right now there is tension. The ECB says it will come forth with stimulus, and that is seen as a more probable outcome than the US doing anything near term. Thus we see the dollar holding at support even though it should be fading given what the US economy is doing -- it is weakening. Currencies weaken when the economy weakens and with the promise --or shall I say threat -- of more stimulus.
Bonds. 1.64% versus 1.69% 10 year US Treasury. Bonds bounced right back to the upside on the safe haven idea based upon the other economic data. Maybe, maybe not. There has been a break over the last three weeks, and then bonds broke below the 50 day EMA and support from the June consolidation. They bumped right back above that with a little gap on Friday. The next moves will be important. Do they break down further? If the Fed will not be buying bonds, I guess they would lose a little value and rates would rise. I will talk more about that later.
Gold. 1623.60, +3.40. Gold continues to rise. Not a huge move, but gold continues to push and press to the upside. It wants to break away. We have all the talk of liquidity being a sure deal. We have China having problems, and it will likely put more stimulus into the picture. The US will have to do that because the economic data is good enough. Considering all of that, then gold prices would rise. The thing is, and this is the big thing, gold is not anywhere near where it needs to be. Gold should be stronger than this based on what we have seen in the past in terms of problems with the ECB and with China. It is not happening this time. Last summer when the ECB was struggling, look what happened with gold. Gold spiked from 1500 to close to 2K. It was at 1915 on the high. A huge run. We have tremendous problems right now. Indeed, they are worse problems than we had last summer. We have massive unemployment in Spain, Italy, and Greece; there are massively high yields to their bonds and huge spreads. And the answer is more debt? Hmm. Okay. In any event, gold wants to go up. When it breaks, it will break big.
Oil. 92.87, -0.49. Oil was down slightly on the session. It has been running on a tear, and it took a little pause over the week. A nice break to the upside, a lateral move, and setting up a new move higher above the 10 day EMA. We had this downtrend from May into late June, and now we are swinging back to the upside. You have noticed gasoline prices rising. The import prices that we just reported this week will be out the window because oil is right back up. It does not look like oil will go lower. Why not? Because you can talk about the problems all over the world -- and there are problems, do not get me wrong. Iran and Israel pose a big problem. You have Russia getting involved with it, and they are a major oil producer. We have fires in some California refineries and shutdowns. There is upward pressure in any event. But there is also the inflation pressures that I believe will take over relatively quickly. It is not inflation itself; it is the fear of inflation that drives these commodities higher. They move in advance. They do not wait until there is inflation and then take off. We will see these commodities start to bleed higher even more so. Droughts do not help. Geopolitical tensions do not help. We will see this pressure continue from various fronts as we move forward.
TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Internals.
Volume. NASDAQ 1.55B, -7%; NYSE 508M, -1.36%. Volume fell to significantly lower levels. Thursday we went over the declines in the NYSE volume year-over-year and year-to-date. Impressive numbers in the 15%+ range.
Breadth. NASDAQ -1.2:1; NYSE +1.2:1. Breadth was nondescript.
THE CHARTS
SP500. The SP500 rallied to a new rally high off of the June low, and then it moved laterally. It did not want to give up any gains. It sold back on that China scare early on Friday, but then it recovered nicely. It is nice action, indeed, because it reached lower toward the 10 day EMA and rebounded for a modest gain. We are not so worried about the gain; we liked the dip and the recovery. Still showing no sellers coming in. Buyers are a bit slack right now. They are not rushing in, but they let it dip, they let it recover, and they are still holding their gains. The market is stingy. The does not want to give up the gains even though it is right below the post-bear market highs. As I said before, this can end at any point. It can fall on Monday. But the fact that the sellers are gone is a good indication. It gives the market a chance to rest and then to work laterally, maybe a little lower, and then springboard up toward the new highs. It seems crazy. It does not seem logical with this terrible economy, but we have the promise of all that extra liquidity.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed the same action. It started lower with a gap. It held the lows of Wednesday and Thursday and rebounded to a modest gain. Just barely positive, but it is the same action. It is holding above the July peaks, moving laterally, waiting for that 10 day EMA to rise up to it. Perhaps NASDAQ can make a run at the post-bear market highs around 3135. You cannot complain about the way it is holding up and the way that techs have shown relative strength -- maybe not on this session, but over the past couple of weeks.
SP600. It makes no sense that SP600 should be rising. It is moving laterally, waiting on the 10 day EMA. They are lagging because the economy is lagging, but they are also rising and following the rest of the indices simply because of the liquidity out; there. There is no reason they shouldn't continue to follow. If the other indices break higher, they should as well. They are very important to watch, though, because if they do break and the rest of the indices do not, that would be an indication that the economic data is finally catching up to the stimulus. At some point, liquidity will not be able to hold the dam. It will break and things will cascade down if we do not change what we are doing. We are not there yet at all. Liquidity is doing its trick, and the SP600 is able to rise even though the economic outlook is tepid.
SOX. SOX posted a decent gain, up 0.5%. It is continuing its steady rise over the last four weeks. It broke right through the 200 day EMA this week, and it kept on going. It is not near its prior peaks. It is more into prior resistance than anything else, and it is primed for a pullback. It is matching the January consolidation, the March dip, the April dip, and a gap point from late April. It is at a resistance point, and it has had a solid steady run to the upside. A pullback to test would be great. Indeed, we would like to see that from all of the indices to start next week. Not a big test, but just a dip back down. They have been moving laterally, and that leaves them a little vulnerable. The longer they move laterally, the better chance they have of moving to the upside. But it is always nice to get a little of the fluff out and then make the run higher. But the market will do what wants it do, and we will play whatever it does.
LEADERSHIP
Energy. For the last couple of weeks we have seen the energy stocks, particularly small energy stocks, performing well. They are turning the corner and are rallying. Friday was not a bad day for them at all. PH is industrials equipment but also energy-related equipment. It has turned the corner and is moving up quite nicely. PTEN has done well. It took a day off, but it held its gains. XEC is moving higher and had enjoyed a nice 2%+ day on Friday as well. PVA was flat to down on the session, but it was solid overall with a nice breakout.
Retail. Retail still looks decent. AMZN is setting up nicely. M reported good earnings on the week. It gapped it up, and it is kind of working laterally now. Even WFM sold off, gapped back up, and is in the bottom trendline of its channel. It could make the rally back to the upside. RL gapped down on earnings, but it is coming back and is still trying to form this rounded bottom and continue the move to the upside. It is not perfect in retail; there were a lot of implosions as well. It is tough to see retail continuing given the plight of the American worker, the lack of jobs, and the very slow (basically zero) growth in wages. I will talk about that when I discuss the ECRI call again. They are hanging in there in many circumstances.
Telecom. HLIT looks as if it is rounding the corner, breaking higher and testing. Looks like wants to move higher. EGHT broke higher, and it is fading to test now.
Technology. I have talked about technology with software and semiconductors, and they continue to perform. FFIV broke higher and is testing. It might lead to another entry point. FLEX had a nice gap through the 200 day EMA and some other resistance. It had a very nice test to end the week. There is room for it to run, I suppose, although it would have to get further ahead. It looks like it needs a little bit more upside potential. We will check those numbers out, but you get the idea.
There are stocks in these positions that we are looking at and looking for as they make the turns off of the bottom. That is really what this move is about right now: Catching stocks that are turning off the bottom and coming in to help out and give the rally to the upside more support to push it through those prior post bear market highs. But it will need something, and that would be more stocks. What do those more stocks need? A reason to move higher. And that would be all that liquidity in the market looking for new places to go. That would be these stocks that are turning back up. They are just saying, "Fine. If the money is coming, we will put it into the market." As they turn, they get more money thrown to them, and they provide support for where the indices are now and push them further to the upside.
THE ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video
ECRI: 'We are likely in recession now.'
Leading indicator is bumping down with lower and lower highs.
ECRI is surprised that the leading indicator IS AS WEAK AS IT IS given all of the cash and liquidity added to the system.
Chronology is the same as it was in the original call. If not Q1 then in mid-2012
Conclusion: There is no jobs growth (Duh!). This is a hallmark of recessions, and thus the argument we are not in a recession because of current government figures adjusted to make things appear better is not hiding the salient factor in a recession: no jobs.
Look at Clinton and Reagan, the best performers far and away. This is the boom That Reagan started, Bush almost screwed up, and Clinton reinvigorated.
Look at Obama's standing in this group. You say your policies are the same as President Clinton's? You say your way is 'working' Mr. Obama? You are WRONG, horribly so, on both counts.
ECRI: Yo-yo economy with more and more recessions. More frequent recessions mean you destroy the ability to grow income.
Companies have to squeeze costs to maintain profitability, and humans, workers, are costs.
The alarming result: People in prime earnings years (35 to 54) they have lost jobs over the past two years. This is the time in your life you make your most money.
The people at work are those 55 and over because they have to work longer because they lost their money.
Our Conclusion: As noted, manufacturing and trade sales peaked in December 2011 and as a result business are not and will not hire more. Thus there won't be new jobs under this cycle and under these policies that PROLONG this cycle versus letting it clear.
Economy is slipping into recession or is there. If have more recessions, high employment is here to stay along with long duration employment that takes a LONG expansion to bring it down.
Question: when will people realize what is going on? They are frogs in a pot of warming water. When they are boiling they realize they are in serious trouble and have to act or die.
What are some policies that are worth noting that are different between the Reagan era that started THE big boom for the US economy and the past 20 years?
Back when Reagan launched his ambitious Emergency Economic Recovery Act of 1981 interest rates and inflation had exploded. Carter's big government, big spending, big regulation policies compounded the Nixon-era slowdown and sent the country into, by Carter's own words, a 'crisis of confidence,' later attributed as his 'malaise' speech.
Carter's last laugh? 'And you thought there was a crisis of confidence under me!'
Reagan policies energized investment in the US once again. If you took a chance and were right, you would get to reap the reward, keep your gains without government crawling down your shirt.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker, scared to death inflation would explode higher (reality check: it ALREADY had), hiked interest rates. A well-known story is told where one of Volcker's aides stormed into his office and asked if Volcker wanted to be the Fed head at the time inflation spiraled out of control. That so unnerved Volcker he agreed to start hiking interest rates.
Lo and behold, the twin policies of creating incentives to invest in the US and buy capital goods and create new businesses coupled with prudently tight monetary policy propelled domestic investment and entrepreneurship, kept the dollar strong so others wanted to invest in the US, exploded growth, and in so doing, inflation melted away. Supply, innovation, and production created new jobs, created new wealth, and exploded demand.
What have we had since? A Fed that was so afraid of messing up the streak that each time an inevitable and normal recession came along, a dip in the business cycle from 10+% growth, they panicked and cut interest rates. Again and again the Fed cut rates, cheapening our currency. We came to rely upon Fed rate cuts versus sound fiscal policy as displayed under Reagan and to a lesser extent Clinton to create prosperity.
In so doing we shifted what generated our wealth and increasing standard of living from investment in the US with continued attempts at keeping demand spiking higher. Economy slows and consumers get a bit slow, add more money they can spend. Time and again this was done even as the regulations were tightened again after loosening under Reagan and some under Clinton. Less business investment, more spiking of consumer demand.
Is it ANY WONDER we lost our manufacturing base? When Greenspan broke the stock market rally and economy in 2000 by draining all liquidity from the system, the job was done. Business investment ended in the US for three years. It went overseas along with the jobs we COULD have created but opted to cede to foreign countries. There was no longer investment in the US, just decreasing the value of the dollar to spike more demand.
Do you remember the 'experts' at the time saying the dollar had been too high for too long and this was just a reversion? Why was it higher? Because the US was the BEST place in the world for business and EVERYONE flocked to it to invest their money. That made dollars very valuable: demand was great, so was the value. When we stopped encouraging investment through our regulations and with the Fed in an overarching easing mode year after year, we were no longer the place to invest. Enter China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia, etc.
Instead of fighting the problem by going back to what works we sped up the devaluation of our currency and added more and more federal programs that saddled more regulations and cost on businesses. Investment fell further and further.
Now we are at the crisis point. A $16T debt that is really $70T. No investment, no jobs. A Fed hell bent on keeping our currency worthless. An administration that says it is business friendly as it passes policies that have raised the cost per employee on small businesses to $10K per worker per year. If you were a foreign company would you want to put your money into that environment? They have spoken, and they are not. The only thing they are doing is buying our Treasuries so we stay afloat in the hope we will someday make a comeback and can pay off our debts to them.
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX. The VIX continues to drop. It dropped significantly on a relatively modest rise on Friday. It is still above the March consolidation lows, so there is still room before there is any pressure. But remember, last time it looked as if the market was going to fall. It did not tank, it just corrected. Volatility bounced up slightly higher, and then the move early this week plopped it right back down. You can argue that volatility is getting to the point where it does not seem to want to move lower. That would suggest a move higher. That would also suggest market selling. But that is a tricky game to get into. It is suggesting there is some top-heaviness, but it has not stalled the move yet.
VIX: 14.74; -0.54
VXN: 15.89; -0.52
VXO: 13.89; -0.11
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.99; +0.13
Bulls versus Bears
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 43.6% versus 39.4% versus 40.4%. Bulls traded at this level three weeks back, slipped in the last leg lower but have charged back . . now that the market has rallied nicely, putting in a higher high in the rally. Undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June. You would expect it to rise and it has. Still not at a dangerous level, just working as it should. As noted, hit 34% in early June. It did its job and the market is on the rally. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Off the 55+ level hit in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 25.5% versus 27.7% versus 26.6%. A jump from 24.5% a month back where bears hibernated for several weeks, and now easing back as the market rallies and bulls breed larger numbers. Never made it to the 35% that can be a bullish indication, but the bulls were weak enough back in June. Over 35% is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +2.22 points (+0.07%) to close at 3020.86
Volume: 1.547B (-6.92%)
Up Volume: 794.2M (-215.8M)
Down Volume: 732.91M (+81.33M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.21 to 1
New Highs: 46 (-15)
New Lows: 35 (-3)
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +3.07 points (+0.22%) to close at 1405.87
NYSE Volume: 508M (-1.36%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.26 to 1
New Highs: 109 (-28)
New Lows: 7 (-3)
DJ30
Stats: +42.76 points (+0.32%) to close at 13207.95
Volume: 86M shares Friday versus 84M shares Thursday and 85M shares Wednesday.
MONDAY
The economic data ramps up next week. It does not start on Monday, but on Tuesday we get Retail Sales. That is very important. They were down 0.5% in June. We will see if they are catching a little back-to-school wind in the sales in July. PPI is out as well. Business inventories will be important given that Wholesale Inventories showed a surprise and strong decline.
On Wednesday we have a lot more info. There is the CPI, the Empire Manufacturing Report, and industrial production and utilization. All very important. On Thursday we have initial claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philly Fed. Friday Michigan Sentiment will be the next important read. There was a bit of a bump higher from a tank lower back in June. June down and July up. We will see where August heads. There is plenty of action next week along with some more earnings, but they are starting to wind down.
Back to the market. We had a rally that took the SP500 and NASDAQ to a higher high on this rally, and just below the prior post-bear market highs. They are bumping up against the resistance, and they have run quite decently on this last leg. We are a bit extended. What will happen? They could sell off. They could break out. They could continue to consolidate. Thus far the sellers have not materialized. The buyers have just stopped buying with any sense of strength for now, and the market is just working laterally. Surely after this move it has to come back and test. After all, we had problems with China weighing on the market. We are likely to get more problems from Europe and other areas. But things are so bad that it is the "bad is good" scenario. If we get bad news, that just means more chance of stimulus, at least in the eyes of the market. This whole move has been based upon that belief.
You would think it has to come back and test nonetheless. We would love that. We would like a bit of a pullback to begin the week. A slide back to the 10 day EMA on SP500, or a slide back to the July peaks on NASDAQ. That would be great because then they could bounce from there and run, or do whatever. Whether they make new highs or not, you would think they could put in a good, solid effort and at least give them a run for their money.
There are many patterns that continue to look good enough to help carry the market higher. There are not thousands out there doing this. Implosions. That is a problem of the weaker economy. As companies report weaker earnings as a result of the economy, they get punished for it. But enough have reported better than expected earnings and did not kill themselves on guidance that they are still moving higher. That is assisting the market move.
We might get a little pullback to start the week. We said that this week it broke the string of nine down Mondays. But this has been a run, it has moved laterally, and the catalyst could be there to send it higher. But the real catalyst at this point will be a pullback to a near support level, and then the renewed belief of some form of stimulus. With a little bit of pullback and some of the fluff taken out of the market gains, they will be ready to move up again barring any major changes in the news. The news has been bad enough. If we get some geopolitical issues, though, then we have problems. That is the wild card that scares people. They kind of have a handle on this debt crisis and the coming stimulus for now. I do not think they grasp how horrific it could be in the future. They do have a handle on what they think it is for now. With that, the market can rally even though not a lot of people are excited about this.
We did see the bulls climb pretty sharply and the bears fall fairly significantly. But they were not major moves. It is enough to show that people are starting to buy into this now that we are up since early June. That is a bit disconcerting because the more people buy into it, the less chance we have of a significant move higher. The people that are in the market -- the few that are there from what we are told -- use up their ammo and have nothing else to put into it.
That still means that these prior highs will be quite important no matter what the market does near term. A little pullback and rally. Obviously whether or not they can take out those prior highs will be the peak. They are close. If they make any kind of significant move from here, they have to break on through to the other side as the Doors sang about.
We will see if the market can turn this consolidation, this little handle, into a new run to the upside this coming week. Have a great weekend!
Support and resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 3020.86
Resistance:
3024 is the gap point from early May
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low
3076 is the late April 2012 high
3090 is the mid-March interim high
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low
Support:
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
2988 is the July 2012 high
2962 is the April 2012 low
2950 is the mid-April closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2927
2942 is the mid-June 2012 high
2910 is the March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2866 is the July 2012 closing low
2862 is the 2007 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2850
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2810 is the low in the shoulders
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
S&P 500: Closed at 1405.87
Resistance:
1406 is the early May 2012 peak
1422.38 is the Post-bear market high (March 2012)
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows
Support:
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1375 is the early July 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1363.46 is June 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 1362
1359 is the April 2012 low
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1326
1325 is the July 2012 intraday low
1309 is the right shoulder low from June 2012
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
Dow: Closed at 13,207.95
Resistance:
13,297 is the April 2012, post bear market high
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak
Support:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
12,971 is the early July 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,854
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,716 is the April 2012 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 12,620
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,369 is the left shoulder low from May 2012
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
Economic Calendar
August 7 - Tuesday
- Consumer Credit, June (15:00): $6.5B actual versus $10.0B expected, $16.7B prior (revised from $17.1B)
August 8 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 08/04 (7:00): -1.8% actual versus 0.2% prior
- Productivity-Preliminary, Q2 (8:30): 1.6% actual versus 1.5% expected, -0.5% prior (revised from -0.9%)
- Unit Labor Costs -Preliminary, Q2 (8:30): 1.7% actual versus 0.4% expected, 5.6% prior (revised from 1.3%)
- Crude Inventories, 08/04 (10:30): -3.729M actual versus -6.522M prior
August 9 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 08/04 (8:30): 361K actual versus 375k expected, 367K prior (revised from 365K)
- Continuing Claims, 07/28 (8:30): 3332K actual versus 3290K expected, 3279K prior (revised from 3272K)
- Trade Balance, June (8:30): -$42.9B actual versus -$47.5B expected, -$48.0B prior (revised from -$48.7B)
- Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): -0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from 0.3%)
- Wholesale Sales, June: -1.4% versus -1.1% prior
August 10 - Friday
- Export Prices ex-ag., July (8:30): -0.3% actual versus -1.5% prior (revised from -1.4%)
- Import Prices ex-oil, July (8:30): -0.4% actual versus -0.3% prior
- Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -69.6B actual versus -$71.0B expected, -$129.4B prior
August 14 - Tuesday
- Retail Sales, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.5% prior
- Retail Sales ex-auto, July (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.4% prior
- PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
- Core PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Business Inventories, June (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
August 15 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 08/11 (7:00): -1.8% prior
- CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
- Core CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Empire Manufacturing, August (8:30): 5.0 expected, 7.4 prior
- Net Long-Term TIC Flow, June (9:00): $55.0B prior
- Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
- Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 79.3% expected, 78.9% prior
- NAHB Housing Market , August (10:00): 35 expected, 35 prior
- Crude Inventories, 08/11 (10:30): -3.729M prior
August 16 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 08/11 (8:30): 368K expected, 361K prior
- Continuing Claims, 08/04 (8:30): 3300K expected, 3332K prior
- Housing Starts, July (8:30): 763K expected, 760K prior
- Building Permits, July (8:30): 770K expected, 755K prior
- Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): -5.0 expected, -12.9 prior
August 17 - Friday
- Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary August (9:55): 72.2 expected, 72.3 prior
- Leading Indicators, July (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.3% prior |
