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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Trader who wrote (11840)	11/28/1997 3:31:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 32384

Martin, Estimates on development stage biotechs with no products on the market are educated guesses about the future at their very best. To me its like picking numbers out of the sky. Certainly $14.55 in 2006 is completely unverifiable. Works out to about $725M in profits at 50M shares. That's certainly a ways off, but with Panretin (for KS, APL and psoriasis), Targretin (for CTCL, lung cancer, diabetes and other indications), the LLY drug, and droloxifene (at 3% royalties for breast cancer and osteoporosis) and the rest of the excellent LGND pipeline, it is not out of the question, although it does seem high. I don't think these drugs alone will bring in that kind of profit, although it is possible that Targretin for diabetes could eventually bring LGND as much as 250M/year if all goes very well. I don't know the relation at the time the estimates were made. But RS is not alone among brokerage houses and investment bankers in their strong support of LGND. And if such companies as LGND, IDPH, AGPH, and even ENMD did not have this support, we would miss out on new treatments for cancer, AIDS, heart disease, etc. Certainly the LLY deal has increased the value of the company and given greater credibility to LGND science and their pipeline. Biotech is a risky business, so it is always wise to entertain reservations. All you can do with development stage bios is find a company with excellent science and management, hold on and pray.