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To: WTD ADMIREE who wrote (273)	11/28/1997 4:43:00 PM
From: set	Respond to of 1494

> SOBs (sons of brokers) that's funny. BTW here's the world according to first call. what looks like downward revisions two months ago is actually the 3/2 split. FIRST CALL - EARNINGS ESTIMATES (As of 11/20/97) Earnings per Share Estimates # Analysts Mean Highest Lowest Proj P/E Quarter Ending 12/97 3 0.41 0.42 0.40 -- Quarter Ending 03/98 4 0.36 0.37 0.35 -- Year Ending 12/97 3 1.28 1.29 1.27 17.00 Year Ending 12/98 4 1.62 1.65 1.60 13.40 5 Year Growth Rate 2 27.50 30.00 25.00 -- Quarterly Earnings Suprises Estimated vs. Actual EPS Estimate Actual Difference % Change Quarter Ended 09/97 0.23 0.26 0.03 13.04 Quarter Ended 06/97 0.22 0.27 0.05 22.73 Quarter Ended 03/97 0.28 0.29 0.01 3.57 Quarter Ended 12/96 0.27 0.38 0.11 40.74 Quarter Ended 09/96 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 Analyst Recommendations and Revisions As of As of 4 As of 8 As of 13 11/20/97 Weeks Ago Weeks Ago Weeks Ago (1) Buy 4 4 4 4 (2) Buy/Hold 0 0 0 0 (3) Hold 0 0 0 0 (4) Hold/Sell 0 0 0 0 (5) Sell 0 0 0 0 Mean 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Historical Mean EPS Estimates Progression As of As of 4 As of 8 As of 13 11/20/97 Weeks Ago Weeks Ago Weeks Ago Year Ended 12/97 1.28 1.24 1.24 1.86 Year Ended 12/98 1.62 1.57 1.57 2.32 5 Year Growth Rate 27.50 25.00 25.00 25.00

To: WTD ADMIREE who wrote (273)	11/28/1997 4:58:00 PM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1494

so - using my market mania discounting rule of thumb, which is that good stocks in bad times get discounted to about 1/3 of their projected value 2 years out: 1.62 = next FY projection 1.62 X .27 = .44 simple mindedly extending the growth another year 1.62 + .44 = 2.05 for FY 99 with a pe of 27: 27 X 2.05 = 55 and 55/3 = 18 1/3 in other words we're at the bottom if the patter I've seen over and over again gets repeated, and if expectations do not change for the worse, which they haven't, at least as first call reports them.