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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (10884)	11/28/1997 3:47:00 PM
From: Marcel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Craig, In light of the new earnings estimates (BTW the way the lowest estimate for this qtr is NationBank's at $0.09) are you expecting an earnings warning from the company? Regards

To: craig crawford who wrote (10884)	11/28/1997 8:15:00 PM
From: Christopher White	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

Craig, Check out Richard Arms' book, 'Trading without Fear.' Arms' eqivolume theory centers around his assertion that the stock market moves with ebb and flow of volume, not time...therefore, volume not time is on the x-axis of your chart. He discusses in his book which volume adjusted moving averages (VAMA) and Ease of Movement (EOM) calclations when taken together are most effective in anticipating a stock's bull or bear moves in a timely fashion. He concludes that the 100 day EOM when used in conjunction with the 3 vs. 22-VAMA is effective for determining the trend in short term moves (though very timely, it's greatest drawdack is the frequent whipsaws), and when used with the 13 vs. 55-VAMA is most effective for determining the intermediate term moves (with this MA you may miss out on part of a move, however, whipsaws are quite infrequent). Looking at the equivolume chart for COMS, its 100 day EOM is currently slightly negative at -0.06, however, for example when the 13 vs. 55-VAMA crossed on May 6th, at the time COMS was at $32/share, the 100 day EOM was at -0.2 and COMS was up 18 points in less than 3 weeks! I see the 100 day EOM as an important indicator for confirming a trend that is already in place, as evidenced by the 3 vs. 22-VAMA and 13 vs. 55-VAMA, however, it is not a timely indicator. COMS' 3-VAMA crossed its 22-VAMA on 17 November and is now bullish. The 13-VAMA (34 3/8) is still running below the 55-VAMA (35 1/8). If COMS can trade above 36 with good volume for 3 or 4 days next week, the 13-VAMA will cross the 55-VAMA and this will signal the beginning of an intermediate term bull move with a target of 44-46, which were the highs of the week of 3 November. Christopher