Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ted Murphy who wrote (6111)	11/28/1997 4:46:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 13594

Ted, >>When the magic Internet channel shows up on cable, AOL will be there.<< "Cable" is not just one company, but quite a number of companies. To use, say, Comcast, as an example, for AOL to have something to sell Comcast, they would have to identify from the set of Comcast users the subset of AOL subscribers who want to use cable modems, a fairly small number of people from Comcast's viewpoint. If it were easy for AOL to hook up with cable companies, they probably would have made it available already. Best, Steve

To: Ted Murphy who wrote (6111)	11/28/1997 4:56:00 PM
From: Yong Bradley	Respond to of 13594

<<Also, note that AOL's crummy interface is perfect for the crummy WebTv. When the magic Internet channel shows up on cable, AOL will be there.>> I believe you are right. One of the reason why AOL is so popular is that most of the people who use the internet are really not very computer literate. Most people who use AOL don't know that you have to get out of AOL to get on the internet. They think AOL is the internet. Also, once they figure out that AOL is not the internet, they just want the easiest (not having to setup an account through an ISP other than AOL) means of getting on the internet, and not necessarily the best. Just do some research where you work (assuming that you don't work at Netscape or Microsoft). How well do people really understand about the internet vs AOL? I really don't think that people really understand what browers are. Subscribers always complain about the internet connection but they never do anything about it (even though, using an ISP and connecting through the internet is probably easier).

To: Ted Murphy who wrote (6111)	11/28/1997 7:38:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Ted, When the magic Internet channel shows up on cable, AOL will be there. You can't access most of AOL from the Internet. AOL proper is NOT a web-site, though AOL does have a web-site. AOL is a direct dial-up on-line service (or bulletin board) and always has been. If AOL does create a full web-site, there would be no reason to subscribe because it would be (or should be) free. Then they're just another, rather shabby ISP, which is what I see them as today. Most importantly, the future isn't AOL or* the Internet, its AOL and the Internet.* Yeah, AOL will very likely be around in the future, but not with their proprietary on-line service configuration as it exists now. They will either become a completely accessible member of the Internet, and soon, or they will cease to exist. It's merely a matter of time. The question becomes, will people be willing to pay extra for AOL's content when that day arrives? That day hasn't arrived yet because I don't think AOL can compete with hundreds of specialist web-sites creating and more or less giving away the content that AOL would be trying to sell at a premium. The day is approaching when AOL will be FORCED to take this step. AOL knows this and is scrambling to build a future for themselves on the Internet directly, with much less than impressive results in this regard, to date. This is because, at its core, profitable commerce on the Internet is about producing the highest quality customized products and services at the lowest possible prices in a highly competitive environment in the most convenient manner with the least possible transactional friction for the parties involved. So far, this model fits well with the likes of Amazon, Yahoo, E*Trade, CDNow, et al, as their primary concern is fending-off the competition, yet still maintaining decent margins, customer satisfaction, and quality. They're all SPECIALISTS in actual businesses attempting to define and take advantage of the huge opportunities the Internet is offering. Compare this to AOL, which provides a commodity service (Internet access) badly, doesn't make any product or service (but acts as the middleman for a few), and provides 2nd-tier, easily replicable content that can only realize a return on investment through advertising revenues, which are self-limiting, cyclical, and dependent upon subscriber growth. Why do YOU think AOL is a GOOD investment? What am I missing?