To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (141153 ) 8/18/2012 12:36:02 PM From: TideGlider Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224729 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll in Politics Related Articles Saturday, August 18, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. One week ago today, just before Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan was introduced as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee, the numbers were reversed and Romney was up by two. See daily tracking history . In his weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen observes that the reaction to Ryan’s selection highlights a gap between mainstream America and official Washington . Much political analysis reflects “the way official Washington views the world, but they don't make sense in mainstream America. In Washington, it's a given that more government spending is needed to help the economy. Most Americans hold the opposite view.” He adds that “as Campaign 2012 progresses, we'll hear lots of analysis and polling data based on the Washington view of the world. But the election will be decided outside of the nation's capital.” If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. Romney is up two points in Florida and up one in Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. In Ohio, the candidates are tied at 45% each. All three are rated as Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections . Nationally, Obama leads among voters under 40, while Romney leads among their elders. The GOP candidate leads by 30 among senior citizens . Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update ). Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.” In the race for control of the Senate, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections show that 48 seats are likely or leaning Republican, while 46 are likely or leaning to the Democrats. Six races remain toss-ups. One of the more remarkable features of the political landscape remains the fact that most Americans believe the nation is overtaxed while dramatically underestimating the actual level of taxes paid . Rasmussen Reports is offering a limited time only discount to subscribe to our Rasmussen Reader service. Subscribers receive access to more than 20 exclusive news updates per week at a price of just $24.95 a year. Stay on top of Election 2012 and all the key issues for less than 50 cents a week. (Presidential Job Approval Data Below) A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing ( see trends ). While most voters continue to believe spending cuts would be good for the economy , most don’t believe such cuts are coming regardless of whether Romney or Obama wins in November. Expectations of spending cuts in a potential Romney administration are little changed with the addition of Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket. With Republicans in charge, just 39% believe spending will go down. That’s more fiscally conservative than expectations following an Obama victory since 54% expect spending to go up if that happens. On the economy, 45% trust Republicans more than Democrats, while 40% hold the opposite view . The GOP also holds a five-point edge when it comes to taxes. On health care, 44% trust Republicans more, but 41% prefer the Democrats. In both Wisconsin and Florida , more voters fear the impact of the president’s health care law on Medicare than fear Romney running mate Paul Ryan’s reform plan for the government health insurance program. A new report by the Treasury Department estimates that the auto bailouts will cost the government $25 billion . Fewer than half of all voters recognize that the government lost money on these bailouts. Upon learning that the government lost money, just 29% consider them a success. Fifty-nine percent (59%) consider the auto bailouts a failure . (Approval Index data below) Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 ( see trends ). During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis. (More below) Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com , through a daily email newsletter , a nationally syndicated radio news service , an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate . A nationally syndicated TV show-- What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012. Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology ( see methodology ). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our " unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy ." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years . Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members .