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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (49153)	8/19/2012 10:21:05 AM
From: thatsnotluck	Respond to of 79066

<<ATPG bit the dust.>> <<now the question is whether there some publicly trade debt worth buying?>> there is a 1.5 billion issue of public second lien debt, recently dropped below 30, but presumably on monday drops a bit more. they have no provided numbers recently so it is difficult to assess just what the value of the bonds might be. i have seen people i regard as thoughful range from zero to full par, not too helpful. i am still trying to develop and estimate i am comfortable with. around 10 i expect to be a serious buyer and i expect to pick up some before that. of course i am a bad guage, since i just sold my ATPG bonds last monday for 34 and change, so WTFDIK? i am thinking buying back double the face at 17 might be my entry point, but still trying to get my arms around the numbers. of course, beyond the numbers, this is really a very levered play on oil prices. if they are able to get Clipper producing soon at the expected level, they might be around 15 million barrels/year, so every $7 change in price is roughly $100 million swing in revenues. oil at 50 kills them no matter what, and oil at 150 saves them no matter what IMHO.