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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (197996)	8/21/2012 9:35:06 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541334

Sure. The more exposure, the better. He's Obama's rabbit foot.

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (197996)	8/22/2012 1:28:12 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541334

Biden might skip Tampa. Is Isaac A Democrat??? August 22nd, 2012 at 9:27 am by Jeremy Wheeler (See update at the bottom) If you are curious about the title, then I’ll tell you…Isaac may be visiting the Republican National Convention in Florida early next week, and I don’t think they are too happy about it. Will it visit us? I hope not. Let’s talk about it. This morning Isaac was located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving west at 18mph, and had sustained winds of 45mph. The pressure was at 1003 mb (millibars). Isaac is passing south of a large area of high pressure in the north central Atlantic. Isaac On Satellite The ridge of high pressure is expected to hold strong and keep Isaac on a westward track for at least the next 36 hours. After that a weakness in the ridge is forecast, and this will allow Isaac to gain some latitude. The forecast track for Isaac has it crossing the Leeward Islands later today. After that, it is likely to pass south of Puerto Rico and head in the direction of the Dominican Republic and Haiti as a hurricane. Forecast Track Of Isaac If the storm moves over land, then it will weaken. If it stays offshore, then it will maintain its strength or even intensify. After Hispaniola it will move back over water and try to head towards Cuba. Possibly as a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm. Once it moves over Cuba, then again it will be impacted by land. Some of both Cuba and Haiti have high terrain which has impacted hurricanes in the past. So there are a lot of features that I don’t think a lot of the models will be able to handle in their forecasts. IE geography, synoptics, or the localized winds. At this time the official forecast has Isaac heading for south Florida by early Monday. The models are in good agreement in the next 48 hours. Then the models diverge. Forecast Track Models The European model (not shown) has once again come up with a solution into the Gulf of Mexico. It is the farthest west model, but as I mentioned it did a great job with hurricanes over the last 2 years. So it carries a lot of weight. Also the overall trusty GFS model has Isaac into the Gulf of Mexico and then into the Florida panhandle. The Canadian has not done well over the last couple of years. It has it plowing into Wilimington North Carolina as a strong hurricane. The GFDL model has it brushing the east coast of Florida, and then pushing onshore around Jacksonville. I think south Florida is the most likely track for now, but I definitely think there will be some zig-zags as it crosses some of the larger islands. It’s even possible that the storm can get chewed up and stay as a weaker tropical storm. I think any model that has Isaac nudging northward in the next 36 hours is not initializing well. It should stay on a sturdy course to the west till then. We will have to monitor carefully as this system has a complicated track, which could eventually shift closer to us in the long term. Behind Isaac there is another cluster of storms that could be tropical depression 10 or Joyce later today. That cluster is also moving west. Between Isaac and that system we will probably start to see some better waves around here. Too early to tell though if they will make it up to Virginia Beach by the weekend for the ECSC. Still…it’s looking more promising than before. On the local scene we have partly to mostly cloudy skies today. There is a stationary front offshore that will help to kick off a few showers near the coast. Especially over the Outer Banks. We are very humid again, so we may see a few showers and storms around Hampton Roads later today. The chance for rain is about 30%. 50% for the OBX. Highs will be in the low 80s. Tomorrow we’ll still see a few showers and storms in the afternoon, but we are still looking at drier weather into the weekend. I can’t wait. Probably a little lower humidity as well. Update: Tropical depression 10 has formed. It will likely stay out to sea and may affect Bermuda in the next few days. Not too much change in the track of Isaac in the 11am update. Max winds are the same. The center has been difficult to find though according to NHC. blogs.wavy.com