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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (8917)	11/29/1997 2:15:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Respond to of 13456

<<This GMR issue is interesting. I laughed at Gary when I first read his idiotic post. But the Veeco shipment is no one's opinion!>> To All: I have no doubt that APM is working on GMR just like everybody else is. But even if APM is one of the 3 unnamed companies, nothing about the Veeco shipments indicates that APM is going to "leap frog" to GMR. You may recall that APM got burned when they were to fast to embrace TFI. This is why the strategy to be a latecomer to MR was put into place. So now is it logical to assume that APM wants to be early with GMR? I certainly not going to say that APM's decision to be late to MR will have been bad in the long run. They have a had very good year. My only concern is that this aparent abandonment of TFI by WDC has caught them off guard, therefore APM could be in for a tuff time over the next 2 Q or so. That is why I think it is a bad time to invest in APM. Not because its a bad company. But why buy in right before things are about to get ruf and we know Crimsan will offer the street no reassurance? Why not instead use this to our advantage and pick an entry point right when things are darkest? ie After APM misses earnigns again in the next QTR. <<I'm trying to think of who the 3 US companies are. I figure one is likely to be IBM. RDRT I think is unlikely because they are now commited to MR and unlikely to jump to GMR this quick.>> Actually, one is very likely to be RDRT. Unlike APM, RDRT has publicly stated that they are accelerating through their MR transition to feed WDC's apatite, which APM has been unable to meet. Here's the deal. While MR and GMR head are fundementally diferent in terms of the effect they exploit(GMR is NOT just super-MR like Super-Big Gulp is to Big Gulp), most of the expensive tools that Veeco sells are used in the production of both MR and GMR heads. It will not be a huge new investment to switch to GMR from MR. The technologies will transition nicely. GMR takes more time and effort to produce cause the head has more layers. I think one can also assume that the more layers that are deposited the more chance for defects, and hence lower yeilds. And before GMR can be exploited you also need to have platters with greater track and bit densities, which will cost more and must be available in quantity. And of course the whole thing requires more precision. But over time costs will come down and the demand for storage will be such that GMR will make sense. But APM cannot afford to wait 2 yrs for GMR to make sense. Anyone who wants APM to make money had better hope that APM isn't foolish enough to "leap frog" over an MR market that is just comming into its prime. WDC wants MR heads now. It would take and absolute dunder head to surender the MR market to RDRT. If I believed Gary's rumor for one second I would seriously be backing the truck up on RDRT. Besides, the closer one is to MR, the closer they are to GMR. Meanwhile RDRT is getting quite cozy with WDC, according to the latest WDC CC. JMHO of course. Every man for himself and what not. Its just too funny to see how Gary Ku(who I think is great and worth every penny for SI) has set this thread on fire with his ramblings. Jon Bird "APM has always right and great. IMO" <-- Gary Ku, APM Poster Boy