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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HerbertOtto who wrote (11866)	11/29/1997 2:35:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 32384

>>Murphy - at 9/10 is dangerously close to becoming a contrary- opinion indicator all by himself.<< Actually I often use him as a contrary indicator. But he is not terribly reliable in that regard either (:>) It is hard to say what the Asia turmoil will do. Could help to lower interest rates. But could also impact profits for the next couple of quarters. The likely failure of another couple of Japanese financial institutions could scare the markets. But I tend to agree Asia is not likely to be a major influence on US markets near term, although I certainly wouldn't rule it out. I think retail stocks will do well at least through January. Biotechs should do well over the next 2-3 months. They are due both technically and seasonally. And the industry's fundamentals are improving all the time. Actually my estimate of FDA approval for Panretin was NOT mid-1999. That was in regard to Murphy's price prediction for one year AFTER the drug is approved. I am assuming an NDA in Q1 of 1998. Let's say Feb. 15, 1998. 6 months for fast track FDA approval takes us to August, 1998. Of course that is assuming everything goes perfectly which is not terribly likely. One year later is mid 1999 when according to Murphy LGND should be selling for 100-125. I also agree that biotechs will continue their wide high/low swings for a while yet. Fudamentally LGND is very sound with lots of good news coming over the next few months, including final Panretin trial results for KS.