To: Arthur Radley who wrote (11871 ) 11/29/1997 10:34:00 AM From: Alper H.YUKSEL Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32384
>> I don't think we have heard the end of the Asian crisis << >> and the problems that we will eventually suffer here in the US << Unfortunately, I have to agree with you here. I'm only hoping that now that the crisis has come out, LGND will be less effected, if the crisis evolves further. >> China the "Big Daddy" of them all hasn't been hit yet. When the troubles of Japan & S.Korea migrates to China, the Great China Wall will not be enough to protect them from all of the problems that they will face and this could exacerbate the regional woes all over again. << Regarding China, I am not so sure. Inflation has remained low while the economy continues to grow healthily. The underlying reason for the SE Asian countries' crisis is decreasing competitiveness, though the spark for each individual crisis may have been different. Many of the countries currencies were pegged to US Dollar and as the Dollar appreciated sharply compared to Yen and European currencies, these exports and foreign investment driven countries lost their competitiveness. On the other hand, China had devalued its currency, yuan in 1994 and increased its competitiveness. Thus, China with its strong exports growth as well as India were one of the reasons for these countries woes. Furthermore, China is not at the same stage of capitalism (never mind the rhetoric about the glorious path to socialism) as these countries. It has a huge excess manufacturing capacity, much of which is still inefficient. With a firm hold on the political ground, the government is expected to start reforming the state sector, which will help China even more. As for LGND, I sure hope they get to market their stuff in China. The thought alone makes me drool :) Alper