Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10590)	11/29/1997 10:48:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Respond to of 94695

GZ: You asked for an opinion about why the market hasn't tumbled in the face of bad news in Asia and fundamental overvaluation. With price to book of >5, dividend yield <2, NYSE market value to GDP >1.1, P/E >20 -- all historic overvaluation levels -- there is only one explanation, in my view (since I don't believe in new eras or new paradigms): THE MARKET IS A GIGANTIC SPECULATIVE BUBBLE! And the fund managers are scared spitless to get out and get fired and hoping they can keep it going by talking it up on CNBC. I couldn't believe Mary Farrell of Paine Webber saying, with a straight face, shortly after grey Monday, that the market is undervalued! My God, which planet's market is she talking about? All it will take to end it is some break in confidence, and then, like a bank run, we will see that it was all a house of cards. God knows when that will be or what will cause it. Just thoughts of a guy who hasn't participated in the bull market and has a thinner wallet because of it. So take these thoughts for what they are worth. Jack

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10590)	11/29/1997 11:14:00 AM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ,,,<why hasn't the market collapsed out of bed already with all the fundamental clamor about how it should?>,,,where is this clamor?,,except on a few SI threads,,which combine for the most part, maybe 100 posters... russell

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10590)	11/29/1997 12:41:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

GZ, US investors/speculators are in a buying the dips mania mode, and a Social Security scare(e.g. not trusting they will be paid in due time), both very intense and forcefull feelings, who drive everyone into buying stocks. Therefore there is no question if we are hitting a major bear market, but it will not come as a surprise, as all the signs are in place. The market will continue it's slide not without many bear/bull traps along the road, as a result to perserve your capital one must be very nimble and fast. Waith for the annoucements from various corporation of not meeting analyst earning estimates to validate the slide. The market will kill one stock at a time. No mass murder of stocks expected. BWDIK Haim

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10590)	11/29/1997 1:05:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

GZ some more signs - India's industry slows down Multinational companies expected returns that may be unrealistic From Correspondent Anita Pratap November 28, 1997: 2:38 p.m. ET NEW DELHI, India (CNNfn) - In India, multinational companies have been rushing in, looking for millions of new customers. But the nation is experiencing an industrial slowdown. Infrastructure bottlenecks -- shortages of electricity and coal as well as inadequate transportation -- are cited as major reasons. Another is a wrong assessment by many, especially big multinational companies, of the real size and purchasing power of India's middle class. Philips NV , along with several other multinational companies like Whirlpool,Peugeot and Reebok, have lost money. An Indian business magazine estimates multinational companies, or MNCs, have lost $500 million in India in the past few years. "There has been an enormous increase in competition with good quality products and that has obviously driven prices down," said S.L. Rao, an economist. "It has increased marketing and advertising expenditure and therefore it has eroded margins." Experts also blame these multinational companies for wrongly assessing the Indian market. "Like lemmings, who follow each other every few years to drown in the ocean,mulitnational companies in consumer products in India, including cars, have followed each other into the wrong segment of the market," said Rao. They all vied for the estimated 200 million middle class, while not realizing only a few in this segment can afford expensive products. Would be interesting to compare them to Westen Economies as size. The most surprising to me are the reported 20%+ of Middle Class, which I asumed to be more like 10% to 15% of the general population. India will be a big downdraft on European economies, especialy UK, Benelux and Germany. Haim

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10590)	11/29/1997 3:05:00 PM
From: robnhood	Respond to of 94695

GZ,,,, this past week in Toronto,,,most of our banks reported record earnings ,,and came in at analysts expectations,,,these stocks have been the darlings up here for some time now,,,,,To defend our dollar , rates were raised 1/4 point near the beginning of the week,,,all the banks , which hit a record high or very close to it on Mon,,dropped nearly 10% by thurs,,,very tiny bounce on fri,,,,this in the face of a rising US market,,and your holiday,,which has a very volume drying effect on us,,,at best the dipsters were not very aggresive,,,and the selling was there,,,many drops in the last few months seemed to be quote drops ,,,with not all that much real selling,,,maybe it's just another buying opportunity,,,but all it took was 1/4 point rise in rates,,,BTW,,our rates are now lower than the US.. just rambling,,but I do not see this as a bullish sign russell