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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: billgatesisevil who wrote (229)

8/30/2012 9:26:49 PM

From: Area51

2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3620

<< The second lien folks will not own debt when this is over. >>

After reviewing the 8K info in more detail I would have to agree with you. So much revenue has been pre-sold and depletion faster and more LOE than I expected (revenue peaks at 97 million per month in month 5 or 6 with Clipper coming on line but operating cash flow peaks at 36 million per month and falls off drastically to 12.x million by month 18)). Not obvious that the bonds (00208JAE8) are undervalued here. They generate some cash flow to pay the bankruptcy court fees and such, but not much to fund any significant future capital expense to keep the dream alive. Maybe they finally under-promise and over deliver?? Maybe that lawsuit will pay off (never seemed fair to me that ATPG suffered from Macondo more than BP, but there are advantages to not being over-levered).

c'est la vie

A51