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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (505909)	9/2/2012 6:03:45 AM
From: Paul Smith	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 794327

Thinking about the situation from Bibi's mind, there are three time periods - 1) Now to Nov. 6 2) Nov 6 - Jan 20 3) Jan 20 forward Then there are two election outcomes - Obama wins or he does not. Now to Nov. 6 -- the calculation for Bibi is how Obama reacts. At a minimum, he needs to look like he is more than an observer. He needs photo opportunities in the situation room and speeches about using force to keep the oil traffic flowing etc. Bibi can pressure him by what he says in public or to the press. Nov 6 - Jan 20 - If Romney wins, Obama may not feel obligated to help Israel. He may do little more than pardon leftist prisoners during his last 2-3 months in office. If Obama wins, he is strengthened and may feel he can dictate to Israel for multiple years. Jan 20 fwd - Unless this can be accomplished/finished in a matter of days, Romney may not want this to be the first event of his Presidency -- he has a lot he'll need to get done in the first 100 days....but he may not have a choice. It'll be important that his team be assembled and ready on Day 1 - people like John Bolton. If Obama wins, he will expect Bibi ro offer to shine his shoes.