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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (507338)	9/10/2012 3:21:18 PM
From: Geoff Altman	7 Recommendations Respond to of 793817

I don't believe any of these polls....... They either over sample democrats or don't take into consideration the enthusiasm gap (spread is around 4 on a 10 scale), which greatly benefits the right......

To: LindyBill who wrote (507338)	9/11/2012 3:55:09 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793817

The PPP sample is +4 Dem and +8 Female. A +5 result from that sample means the race is still tied, essentially.

To: LindyBill who wrote (507338)	9/11/2012 6:52:19 AM
From: prometheus1976	1 Recommendation Respond to of 793817

theulstermanreport.com Obama up by 5 in Ohio. In a polling sample that favored Barack Obama by nearly 10 points, the best he can do is a 5 point advantage. Bluff called. We send back a revised interpretation of the poll with a “Greetings from Ohio” postcard attached. But there’s more bad news for Obama with this PPP data. In the poll 5% of voters indicated they were still undecided. Pretty big # this late in the game in a state that has been hammered byadvertising and political appearances from both campaigns but especially the Obama team. Those undecideds know Barack Obama. If they liked him they would already be indicating plansto vote for him. Campaign 101 is that the undecideds break AWAY from the incumbent and FOR the challenger by about 2 to 1. So with that in mind, there’s another 2 or even 3 point advantagefor Romney in Ohio with just the undecideds alone. You want to know the headline Obama’s own internals are giving them in Ohio? Want to know what the headline would read if it was published by a non-partisan slant? Romney holds 3 point advantage in Ohio. Now ad another couple points advantage for the undecideds and the Election Night headline for Ohio is looking like this: Romney wins Ohio by 5. We got a long ways to go before we get that headline though. But for now, the reality and not the perception that is being attempted by the media, is looking much better for Romney than it is for Obama. The debates are going to be huge for us. Both sides know the debates may be the difference on Election Night. And so does the media. And that has me very concerned. The pro Obama spin is going to be huge. Still want to make time for a sit down. Soon.