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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill who wrote (507367)	9/10/2012 10:16:40 PM
From: t4texas	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793843

for the first time ever i actually went to the intrade site to see what the open interest is and how much money is actually being bet. it really is small potatoes money over there, and it looks like after hours type trading on a thinly traded stock. it was a few hours ago, but i recall there were 45,650 shares traded today involving romney. total open interest is 528K shares. obama had 26,589 shares traded today. 500K shares open interest. so it looks like about $183K was traded today on romney, and about $159K was traded on obama. this is very thin stuff. if i sum the total open interest from both romney and obama and current prices, i get $3.2M plus $3.0M total money bet. this is a microcap-like stock, and i know how easy these are to manipulate. it is pretty easy with very little money to move these intrade numbers around up or down, but no republicans or democrats would do that, would they? i went to the intrade site, and got these numbers. i see how the bets are made. it is truly a 24 hour auction not unlike the way after hours trading is done in stocks. it looks like to me a lot of people simply buy and sell each day to try to scalp some money. by the way i went to the scott walker chart to see how well they predicted that, and it really was up and down until the end. the volumes were tinsey-winsey until the last two days. the volume was really in the last two days when some big betters thought walker was going to win. i suppose they were willing to bet $9 to win $10.