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To: TREND1 who wrote (24585)	11/30/1997 5:29:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

larry, clearly, investing is all about the future and investors gauge future risk vs future reward. however, when current estimates are $0.46 and future estimates are for $3.00 or so (this was the case last q) and mu drops $0.33 then some re-evaluation must be done to future numbers - especially since dram price decreases have accelerated. just b/c a company loses money this year doesn't mea they can't make money next year and investors assign a value to that risk reward. they did a horrible job of this with mu, though. still are. what many fail to understand or comprehend, and therefore they seriously misvalue the huge risk that mu currently represents, is that this cycle is not like last cycle. and, even if it were like last cycle it would not be good news. mu lost money on the 16 mb cycle. they made tons on the 4 mb part. different results equate to changes in the environment. mu will lose even more on the 64 mb part. why? the part changes are occuring much, much faster and they are incredibly capital intensive. he who has the most capital wins that game. mu isn't even in the top 10. in this environment, efficient processes, and mu has them, become much less important. so, people are using the past to judge the future not realizing the fundamental differences. eventually, they will pay a steep price for their miscalculations. as for fas and news like 256 mb parts being available in samples, for mu it is near meaningless b/c there is no reason right now to believe anybody would make money on them. this game is all about investing to make future EARNINGS. no earnings then no news, imho... of course, things change in time and that represents value. however, mu at current valuations represents a lottery purchase more than an investment, imho. the definition of a lottery is a tax on those people that are no good at math ;-)