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To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (3993)	11/30/1997 2:53:00 PM
From: Jimmy Dell	Respond to of 95453

<<IMVHO, this sector has not been driven by fundamentals for the past 2-3(?) months. Instead, we had more short term money arriving, then most (all?) of the short term money leaving, along with mutual fund profit-taking bonus-locking sector-rotating, plus the appearance of short sellers driven by the short term technicals.>> Hi Mike Schiavo, I agree with this statement. We have had a decline not based on fundamentals. I responded earlier (and so did others) with a TA-based reason that we may be at the bottom. However, I also believe that you have to look at fundamentals too in addition to TA. Either method alone is rarely sufficient. It is not at all unreasonable to believe that the strong fundamentals can begin kicking in as a factor to keep the technical decline from exceeding that which occurred in early 1997, which decline we are now more or less on par with. <<<Seems to me that a 20-30% decline in this sector despite great fundamentals undercuts ones ability/credibility to discuss the direction of the market if you rely on fundamentals only. Hell, if it can decline 30%, why not 20% more?>>> I don't rely on fundamentals alone (see my above comments and previous posts). <<<Finally, (assuming you are not a buy/hold investor), if one is willing to jump in when stocks are lower than the fundamentals woud indicate, shouldn't one be willing to jump out when the stock prices exceed those fundamental values? And how would one do that?>>> Absolutely. Picking the top is impossible. One needs to assess ones risk tolerance and how badly one needs the money when one thinks we may be at a top. My strategy is to sell a portion at the first decline that, based on TA, doesn't look right. Then sell the rest if there is further decline. You can always buy back in if the mkt proves you wrong.