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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cymeed who wrote (10746)	11/30/1997 4:32:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Cymeed: I do not short any stock, it is not worth the risk, if at all I would buy long term puts, but there are so many other opportunities (19 to 15 is not a particularly good target for a put). I actually got into the stock just under 18 and got out on the next rally when it became evident 23 seems to be quite a supply area. I am puzzled by the weakness, since I believe that both CYMI and VECO (another "semi-cap" I have been in and out of) actual results in the next two years should be independent of what, I believe, will be extreme weakness in the semi-caps in general. Yet, believing that the market is a relatively efficient instrument, I wonder loudly why is CTMI getting such a beating. The attempts I made in my last post are to try and quantize the future potential sales rate and relate it to the industry's ability to absorb all those lasers. I hope to be in CYMI again soon. I think that three good starting points should be how many wafer fabs are in the field now (The last figure I had was around 600, but it is outdated). How many steps of DUV will be required er wafer. And, by 2000 what percentage of the industry will be at .25 micron (I for one doubts that more than 10% of total production of chips will be at these features, but this forum should be used to vet out such numbers so we do not simply extrapolate from the past without consideration of reality). Zeev