Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carpenter who wrote (4012)	11/30/1997 6:42:00 PM
From: Platter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I am interested in your opinion on UFAB(UNIFAB INTERNATIONAL), it has been beaten down to $20 from high of $43.87 on 10/8/97.ÿ It began trading on 9/19/97, offering price $18.00, closed at $32.00 on first day of trading. Stock traded a high of $37.00 on the 10/29/97, when earnings released, up from a close of $34.75 the previous day. It Looks pretty cheap, presently close to its offering price.ÿ No change in fundamentals.ÿ Could this be another situation like IRIDF(IRIDIUM) which went down close to its offering price at $17.00 then rebounded to reach a high of $54.00 just recently.ÿ I will appreciate your opinion. Thanks Bryanÿÿÿ bf@mcione.com A few comments I received via Email based on requests for opinions from several sites...Please note to all these are just opinions not recomendations... 1)Although UFAB was priced at 18.00 it actually opened at 29 on the first day of trading. This offering was at a time when the sector was on a high. Since that time the sector has made a minor correction and that is possibly what we are seeing in the current value of the stock. Although it is tempting to jump in right now I would wait for the true bottom to form. It has been all down hill for the last 13 days and if the sector gets some good news from OPEC it could rebound nicely. WAIT FOR THE BOTTOM TO FORM. Only my opinion. > >Happy trading. :} 2)Dear Bryan, This is a hard question to answer. However, in general IPO's are not good investments except for the initial flurry the first day or two. In this case, as long as the initial offering price holds there could be a subsequent rally. However, should the initial offering price be broken the price could fall quickly to half. One strategy would be to buy here and put a stop-loss in under the initial offering price but that would mean you may have to take a quick loss. I haven't had a chance to look at the chart and a good clue here would be the volume as the stock has sold off. If the stock is retreating on relatively light volume, then the odds increase that a subsequent rally will unfold. However, if there is big volume during this selloff, it is not a positive sign. You also might want to check the news on the stock as I suspect there has been some negative announcements on the future prospects of the company, hence, the unexplained selloff. This letter is not intended as investment advice and any subsequent trading is at your own risk. (I had to say that). You might get some additional info from the IPO report in MarketCentral at mktctl.com. Regards, Roy Spectorman President 3)Hello, Bryan - Thanks for your e-mail regarding our opinion on Unifab (UFAB). We don't trade on news or fundamentals, since Commando is a statistically proven pattern recognition system.ÿ Therefore, we would not be entering a position in UFAB until a tradable formation occurred, which is not currently the case.ÿ In reviewing the UFAB chart, Commando would have given us a three signals: Buy signal at $35.00 on October 6, exiting at $42. Sell signal at $33.00 on November 12, exiting at $22. Sell signal at $30.00 on November 18, exiting at $20. Hope this information helps.ÿ Please let us know if you have further questions. Sincerely, Robert McCaleb Commando Trading Systems 4)Hi Bryan, It's very difficult to make a sound analysis of a stocks prospects when it is as new and unseasoned as UFAB. But for what ever it's worth we will give it a try.ÿ On all technical indicators, the stock appears extremely oversold and due for a technical bounce.ÿ The bad news it this; very seldom do you see a stock hit such extreme oversold levels and turn around and zoom right back up. Usually, a period of base building will follow the first technical bounce particularly after a 15-5-5 stochastic goes to such an extreme reading.ÿ Theÿ good news is that as the stock has continued to decline over the last few days, the RSI has not confirmed that move. Aÿ divergence is occuring that would call for caution if you were short but it is not signiicant enough to call for adding to your position. Again, when a stock is as unseasoned as UFAB, with no following yet on the street, extremes on the upside as well as on the downside are often seen which down the road will make no sense fundamentially or technically. Good luck, Scott Ruppert, ASK Research 5)Bryan, Charts don't get much uglier than does UFAB's.ÿ If there was ever a stock due for a bounce - any bounce it would be UFAB.ÿ This stock will only move higher when the sector heats up and traders start to look for bargains.ÿ It is oversold to say the least.ÿ However, this isn't uncommon to see a trend like you have observed.ÿ I have a friend who only trades IPO's and looks for a situation exactly like this.ÿ I don't think you want to try to bottom fish it though, wait for both sector strength and a reversal of the stock's trend before nibbling. Hope this helped. Roger editor@rightline.net

To: John Carpenter who wrote (4012)	11/30/1997 7:22:00 PM
From: David Spruiell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Saudi Muscle-flexing Revives OPEC Vigor Sunday November 30 8:08 AM EST By Richard Mably JAKARTA (Reuted here on Saturday were a timely reminder that the giant petroleum producer has no intention of letting its influence over world oil affairs wane. Riyadh and its Gulf allies Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates wasted little time in steamrolling fellow Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil exporters into the cartel's first major increase in output limits in four years. Saudi Arabia's aim was to secure an OPEC mandate permitting it higher outputuotas and raising supply limits by 10 percent to a collective 27.5 million bpd -- in line with current actual OPEC supplies. "This isn't just about more oil on the market," said Mohammad Abduljabbar of Washington-based Petroleum Finance Company. "This was a political statement on Saudi Arabia's part." "We regard this as a wholesale policy shift in the thinking and behavior of OPEC after four years of standing by and doing nothing," said a Saudi official. "This is an excellent agreement because people doubted OPEC could act and thought it was no longer influential in the market," the official said. Natwest Securities in London said: "The Saudi role is more dominant than ever and their policy of maintaining market share and price stability remains intact." Even Saudi Arabia can't resurrect the clout OPEC held two decades ago when ministers dictated the price of world oil from their hotel suites. Now the free market writes the rulebook. But when OPEC next meets in June, traders at exchanges in London and New York which arbitrate the price of energy should probably sit up and take notice. Saudi Arabia has indicated it orld oil demand next year as global oil consumption accelerates to 76 million barrels a day. "In the short run, Saudi Arabia is gambling that prices will not crash," says Petroleum Finance Company. Oil analysts and traders said oil markets initially will concentrate on the impact on supply. "I think the reaction will be thumbs down," said Nauman Barakat of Prudential Securities in New York of his expectations . "I don't think the fact OPEC quotas are now closer to actual production will impress the markets -- traders won't buy that. "The deal puts a lot of onus and responsibility in the market on Saudi Arabia," said Bob Finch, head trader at Vitol SA. Nevertheless, Sauddi thinking. With no further plans in the kingdom to raise output capacity the world oil market's cushion of spare supply shrinks significantly -- cut by a third to just two million bpd. Saudi Arabia will maintain 1.5 million bpd mothballed with a further half million between Kuwait and the UAE. "That's going to mean markets are going to be even more sensitive if there's any sign of a major supply disruption in the Middle East," said an analyst at the meeting in Jakarta. OPEC's second biggest producer, Saudi Gulf rival and traditional price hawk Iran put a brace face on a deal which sees output limits a million barrels a daily higher than it would have it liked. Early signs, said Arab delegates, were that Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was approaching OPEC with a new pragmatism. Zanganeh's signal that Iran was prepared to compromise on a supply limit higher than it believed good for the market provided an early breakthrough at the talks. Tehran now must prove it has the capacity to match its new 3.94 million bpd allocation. Zanganeh assured reporters Iran intends to fully use its new allowance. End: Let the market decide, David