Michael,
Thanks for your probing post.
First off, I cited Mr. Bill as a very likely exception, not the rule.
Secondly, the three companies you list are de facto (legal) monopolies or near monopoly, in Cisco's case. Monopolists are in the fortunate position of making terrible forecasts and still come out ahead, at least in the short term. The can say the future will be whatever they want, within limits, and, employing their monopoly power, can proceed to construct that future, again within limits. Do not confuse this power with vision.
Thridly, I watched the NSCP-MSFT phenomenon unfold, in real-time. The fact that NSCP passed MSFT in the intersection of browser market share while MSFT was waiting for the light to change is proof that MSFT was asleep at the wheel, regardless of what you believe are the popular restatement of the facts. A company with a somewhat less hegemonic position would have suffered greatly.
Fourthly, these are all very good people and their opinions are quite valuable, just not the final word, and certainly not to be accepted without question. They're fallible people just like you and me. If they want to make projections, they either make them up on their own best guesses, they extrapolate past trends (a particularly dangerous activity), or they commission a "study", which as we all know tends to produce results in line with expectations of the commissioner.
Fifthly, in terms of who are better (or as valid) sources on projecting future trends in specific industries, there are thousands. Authors, engineers, scientists, analysts, managers, front-line workers, end users, and even some investors <ggg>. There are many authors writing on technology trends in general, and software, hardware, and networking specifically. Some of them work for MSFT, INTC, or CSCO, most of them do not. Furthermore, they generally have no interest in promoting any particular company's fortunes or maintaining its monopoly position. The library, a bookstore, or industry trade publications would be worth browsing. It's called research. This research may reinforce Mr. Chamber's pronouncements, or it may not.
Sixthly, as a professional software developer, I can state firsthand and without reservation that MSFT's forecasts for the software industry are to be taken with a grain of salt. MSFT has little interest in promoting any technology that it cannot control, ESPECIALLY superior technologies, much to the detriment of the software industry as a whole. This is, as it always has been, emblematic of the monopolist. MSFT will only accept those uncontrollable technologies that it must in order to stay in business. The uncontrollable technologies that it does reluctantly assume will immediately and increasingly undergo MSFT's efforts to take control. MSFT has an interest in the general software industry only to the extent that MSFT calls the shots and those shots benefit MSFT. Therefore MSFT cannot forecast for the whole industry, only for itself. Quantitatively, to the extent that MSFT IS the software industry, MSFT's forecasts apply to the software industry, at least for the short term.
The above reasoning could also be applied to INTC and CSCO to lesser and lesser degrees still, respectively. |
