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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jlallen who wrote (56228)	9/23/2012 9:40:47 AM
From: greatplains_guy	2 Recommendations Respond to of 71588

The entire liberal media is morally bankrupt. It is time that half the population that works help them complete the circle and become financially bankrupt. If no business would advertise on thier partisan networks the fall would be quite rapid. If they had no viewers except those that tune in all day they would have nothing to sell.

To: jlallen who wrote (56228)	9/24/2012 11:13:05 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Respond to of 71588

Inside the ‘poll-ercoaster’ Numbers all over the map By JAY COST Last Updated: 11:32 PM, September 23, 2012 Posted: 10:43 PM, September 23, 2012 Have you noticed that the political polls have been all over the map lately? Is President Obama up 8 in Virginia, or just 1? Is Mitt Romney up 6 in North Carolina, or is Obama up 4? How about nationwide? Gallup and Rasmussen show a tie, but Pew shows Obama up 8. And so and so on. What the heck is going on? For starters, remember what polls are and what they’re not. They are a snapshot in time — but not a good gauge on voter decision-making. In fact, they’re a terrible way to conceive of the thought process that the average swing voter goes through to make his choice. Who knows? A host of factors — including indecisive voters — has Mitt Romney and President Obama bouncing up and down in the polls.Many a voter is truly undecided, and will in fact change his mind before Election Day — but may still tell a pollster, “I’m for Obama!” simply because he enjoyed Bill Clinton’s speech at the Democratic National Convention. That leads to the second point: It has been only two weeks since the DNC ended, which means Obama is still enjoying a bounce in the polls. And that bounce can be higher or lower, depending on how tightly a pollster screens likely voters (or polls of adults who are deemed likely to vote by the pollster). Think of it this way. You consider yourself a Democrat but normally don’t vote nor pay much attention to politics. But the convention excited you and made you feel good about politics for the first time in a long time. You get a call from a pollster whose only question to screen for likely voters is, “Are you certain to vote?” Still riding high from the DNC, you answer, “Absolutely!” And thus you are included in the poll. But if the pollster were to ask other questions like, “How often have you voted in the past?” Or, “How much attention were you paying prior to the conventions?” You’d answer, “Rarely” and “Not Much” — meaning you would probably get screened out of that sample. That is one way to explain the wide variation in the poll — how many Democrats (or Republicans) are included versus how many are screened out. This type of nuts and bolts stuff usually doesn’t matter when we get close to Election Day, as the polls begin to converge. But right now, we are seeing a surge in Democratic enthusiasm, and polls that do a poor job of differentiating enthusiastic non-voters from enthusiastic voters are going to overestimate Obama’s margin. But there is a broader point to bear in mind: It’s only September. For political junkies, this statement makes little sense. They’ve been paying close attention to the campaign for months now, and are giddy over the fact that Election Day is quickly approaching. But political junkies don’t swing elections. In fact, something like 25 percent of voters make their voting decisions after September, and anywhere from 10 percent to 20 percent will make their final choice in the last week. This is why the polls have often swung wildly in the final weeks of a campaign. It’s how “Dewey defeated Truman” in 1948. It’s how a blowout Richard Nixon victory in 1968 turned into a squeaker. It’s how Gerald Ford closed a 10-point gap and actually had a lead in the final Gallup poll in 1976. It’s how a toss-up race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan finished with a GOP blowout in 1980. It’s how Bill Clinton went from being up 9 in mid-September, 1992 to a tie with George H.W. Bush by the end of October. It’s how George W. Bush went from being 10 points down in September 2000 to the 43rd president in January 2001. And it’s how the very same Bush “blew” the 11-point lead he enjoyed in late September 2004, defeating John Kerry by just 2 points. In other words, September polls are extremely volatile. And this year’s volatility is compounded by the late date of the Democratic National Convention. It was, in fact, the latest party convention in US history. And when the polls are bouncing around a lot, the chances are much greater that they will disagree with one another — which is exactly what we’re seeing right now. The best way to view this presidential campaign is an NFL divisional grudge match, Steelers-Ravens or Giants-Cowboys. Both sides know each other’s strengths and weaknesses extremely well, so you know the game is going to be close. Sure, one side just scored on a big play, but we’re only halfway through the 3rd quarter, and the other side is due to strike back any moment. As always, the game will come down to some fantastic interception by Troy Polamalu or an unbelievable completion by Eli Manning to Victor Cruz. So sit tight, politics fans: There’s plenty more to come. Jay Cost is a staff writer for The Weekly Standard and the author of “Spoiled Rotten,” a critical history of the Democratic Party. nypost.com

To: jlallen who wrote (56228)	9/25/2012 10:23:43 AM
From: Peter Dierks	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Romney Winning 301 Electoral Votes Projected By Polling Data September 25, 2012 - 7:07 am Am I dreaming? Maybe or maybe not, but either way this Electoral College map from Examiner.com is based largely on projected results from UnSkewed Polls.com and some other astute analysis. Upon seeing this map, I immediately knew it was time for another world famous Tatler Photo Caption Contest. Since this past Sunday when Charlie Martin wrote about UnSkewed Polls.com on this very same PJ Tatler and then the Drudge Report linked to Martin’s piece, UnSkewed Polls has been quite the rage. You can think of UnSkewed Polls as the web site equivalent of Advil. You take the site two times a day for relief from all the aches and pains caused by ingesting data from the usual polls, skewed by the oversampling of Democrats, resulting in depressing supporters of Team Romney. Warning label: Taking UnSkewed Polls twice daily may cause delusions and euphoria. So ignoring the warning label, here is my entry: President Obama did not build this map and has canceled the election. Lame, so lame and I know Tatler readers can do MUCH better. (Actually, one could say President Obama’s policies did build it, but this is not part of my “official” entry.) The winning caption writer will, as always, receive priceless PR in a future post. Now, proceed immediately to your keyboard and submit a creative caption worthy of this Electoral College map projecting a solid red Romney romp. For any reader new to our world famous Tatler Photo Caption Contests there are only two rules, “be nice and stay classy” because “the media” is watching. Yes, THEY ARE watching, because if these projections ARE accurate, “the media,” (along with a ton of polling companies) will be out of business on Wednesday, November 7th – or probably trying to convince the American people that Romney stole the election. Good luck and don’t get too cocky because all the red states on this map are only reflections of 2012 “hope” triumphing over 2008 “change.” Myra Adams is a media producer, writer, and political observer who served on the McCain Ad Council during the 2008 McCain campaign, and on the 2004 Bush campaign creative team. Her columns have appeared on PJ Media, The Daily Caller, RedState and as a co-writer on The Daily Beast. Myra's web site TheJesusStore.com contributes all profits to Christian charity. Follow Myra on Twitter @MyraKAdams pjmedia.com

To: jlallen who wrote (56228)	10/7/2012 9:54:49 AM
From: greatplains_guy	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Polls show Romney making headway in swing states By Justin Sink and Jonathan Easley 10/05/12 12:22 PM ET A set of new swing-state polls show Mitt Romney making big gains in three critical battleground states just two days after the Republican nominee's widely-heralded debate performance. The polls — from the highly accurate Rasmussen and We Ask America — showed Romney closing the gap or leading in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, three states the GOP candidate would likely need to capture to win the White House. And they represent a dramatic reversal from last week, where polls showed President Obama with a diminishing lead. In Ohio, the We Ask America poll gave Romney a 47-46 percent edge over the president, while Rasmussen flipped those results, giving Obama a 50-49 percent lead. Both polling firms completed the sampling for their survey Thursday, in the aftermath of Wednesday's shaky debate for the president. A number of liberal leaning polls before the debates showed Obama with a comfortable lead in the Buckeye State to as much as 8, 9 or 10 points. Obama now leads Romney by 3 in Ohio, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. In Florida, We Ask America found Romney with a 49-46 percent lead, good for a six-point swing in the Republican nominee's favor from the polling firm's survey conducted in late September. The RCP average now shows Obama and Romney tied in Florida. Florida and Ohio are two of the biggest swing-state prizes, with 29 and 18 electoral votes at stake, respectively. And in Virginia, both polling firms found Romney with an advantage. We Ask America gave Romney the greater edge, finding the Republican challenger leading the president 48-45 percent. Rasmussen, meanwhile, gave Romney a 49-48 percent lead. Those surveys were the first polls since early September to give Romney a lead in that state. Romney and running mate Paul Ryan campaigned in Virginia on Thursday night, and both Obama and Romney were holding rallies in the state on Friday. The candidates are tied at 47 in Virginia, according to the RCP average of polls. Ohio, Florida and Virginia are three of the twelve states President Bush won in 2004 that President Obama took in 2008, and they will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election. thehill.com