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Strategies & Market Trends : Charts With An Attitude; Trading In & Out -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (4166)	11/30/1997 10:56:00 PM
From: Ocote	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4701

Doug I did a back of the envelope calculation to try to answer my own question: If 330 adjusted SP500 in 1/96 corresponds to 680 real SP500 and there has been a 39.7% increase in the index since then to 950, take away apporox 3% a year for inflation, this would put at about 438 on the inflation -adjusted SP500. His chart looks like(can't read the years very well) he puts us at around 400 in 1998 with maybe a drop to 390. This would suggest a correction of around 10% or a bit more. This is too crude to rely on, but makes for interesting discussion. In any case we are not double his predicted level. Will look for his web site. Maybe he has better charts there. Ocote