Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Loren who wrote (256)	11/30/1997 10:14:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 569

Thread: Loren does TA analysis on the BTGC thread and a few others. (I own almost as much BTGC as BIOX.) A couple of days ago I asked Loren to look at BIOX. Below is that analysis for your FYI. Please understand that I asked for this and dragged it over from the BTGC thread. No one is making any type of attack on BIOX. Regards John ============================================================ John - Re: BIOX... Weekly: MACDs gave sell signal 5 weeks ago... still trending down. DMI- crossed over DMI+ at same time... ADX is now moving upward, denoting strong trend (bearish). Daily: MACDs gave sell signal mid-September... still trending down. DMI- on top of DMI+... ADX moving upward, denoting strong trend (bearish). Interpretation: Totally bearish at this time. I'm unfamiliar with BIOX, John... know why the technicals are so opposite the fundamentals? Loren

To: Loren who wrote (256)	11/30/1997 10:36:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 569

Loren - Thank you very much for you effort. I do appreciate it. To get you up to speed quickly (the fundamentals vs technicals). (1) BIOX got FDA OK for major Osteoarthritis drug in Aug. (Has been in Canada and Sweden since 95) Think of this drug - called SYNVISC - as a kind of Silly Putty that a doctor injects into your knee. (2) Their fundamentals are strong this year because they signed major license deals with AHP ($23.0 mil.) , '97 Bayer ( $5.0 mil.) , '97 Ingel Boe ( $8.0 mil.) , '97 Roche ( $5.0 mil.) , '95 RPR ( $5.5 mil.) , '95 and CGEN ($5.0 MIL). '96 Thus far in 97 they have been paid a bundle in fees. So Revenues related to fees and CASH in the Bank are in great shape. (3) The stock went ballastic from Aug. 13 when FDA said ok and went as high as $41.0 and some change. (4) AHP started shipping SYNVISC this 4th qtr. (5) A new player ANIK/BMY has entered the arena and are - at best - 6 months behind the BIOX/AHP collaboration. (6) You know OXSODROL - right. That's about a 1/2 billion market that BTGC would like to enter. The O/A market that BIOX is tapping into - I think - is higher than 1 billion. So it is a piece of change - to put it mildly. And - they have an excellent product and science backing it up. (7) I expected BIOX to drop in price simply on "THE NO NEWS SYNDROME" . Don't know but I think I know that the really lowest it could go is 29.50. (8) This price decline is - I think - on extremely low volume. Esp. the last 6 weeks or so. (9) Short interest has risen from about 130,000 to 265,000 shares for Sept/Oct. (10) I expect a second product called HYLAFORM to be FDA okayed this month. Collegen currently sells it in the rest of the world for BIOX, and they would do another license deal to get USA business. (11) BIOX has already obtained distribution rights in CHINA. The significance of this is that BAYER signed on for about 6-8 asian countries. At some point, they may go with BIOX for China. If they did I'm speculating the fee would be $30.0 mil. Alternatively, they could choose to go with the ANIK/BMY team if they decided to wait. Sorry to be so lengthly, but I hope this fills in some gaps. Note, if you check out post #175 it is a detailed P&L that speculates what 1998 might be like. The ONLY number I am really uncertain of in this P&L is the AHP - USA sales for 1998. That's a hard call. Regards and thanks again, John