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To: koan who wrote (28773)	9/26/2012 8:43:02 AM
From: Brumar89	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

unskewedpolls.com

To: koan who wrote (28773)	9/26/2012 9:43:00 AM
From: longnshort	2 Recommendations Respond to of 85487

More bogus polling to fool the people. Morning Jay: Are the Polls Tilted Toward Obama? Republicans, by and large, are frustrated with recent polls of the presidential election because they think Democrats are being oversampled. Many pollsters respond by saying that “weighing” the polls for partisan identification creates its own problems and might end up skewing the polls in the wrong direction. I am not in favor of partisan weighing, per se, although some polls like the Rasmussen poll do it in a sensible and nuanced way. So, I think the pollsters are offering a false choice between weighing versus non-weighing. Furthermore, a lack of weighing creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats' standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972. If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another. One important “tell” in my opinion, is this president’s continued weak position with independent voters, who remain the true swing vote. Obama’s average overall margin over Romney in these same polls is roughly 4 percent. Bottom line: You do not get a four-point lead overall with a tie among independents, unless you are squeezing substantially more votes out of your base than your opponent is. And more generally, you are not "winning" an election in any meaningful sense of the word when 3/5ths of unaffiliated voters are either undecided or against you. So, I see two ways the polls are tilted in favor of the president. First, many of the polls are guessing that Democrats are set to turn out at levels that match or sometimes exceed 2008. Take two examples – recent polls in Ohio and Florida. I’ve included the 2008 and 2004 exit polls as a baseline for consideration. Here’s Ohio: The midpoint between 2004 and 2008 is D+1.5. You’ll notice that Gravis, Washington Post, and Fox basically see a replay of 2008 while Rasmussen and the Purple Poll see roughly something in between 2004 and 2008. Relatedly, the polls on the high end for Democrats see a 5-point lead or better for the president (with Gravis being a strange exception), and Obama at or near 50 percent. The polls that see a tighter partisan split basically see a toss-up. We see the same thing in Florida as well. The median between 2004 and 2008 is actually a Republican advantage of 1.5 percent. But, once again, only Rasmussen and the Purple poll show anything like that. The rest of them tilt toward 2008, with several of them overwhelmingly so. And, once again, the polls that feature “2008 Mach 2.0” show a very healthy Obama lead; the polls that see something between 2004 and 2008 show a pure toss-up. We also see the same tendency in Virginia, Colorado, and, as best I can tell, Nevada (there has been less polling there). All told, we see a statistically significant relationship between Obama's margin and the Democratic advantage in partisan identification. In other words, there appears to be a bimodal distribution of the polls. They are not converging around a single point. Instead, some (notably Rasmussen, Purple Strategies, Survey USA, and Mason-Dixon) see Obama ahead by just 1 to 3 points in the key swing states, while others (notably the Washington Post, Fox News, PPP, and NBC News/Marist) see an Obama lead that ranges between 4 and 8 points. And the difference looks to be built around how many Democrats are included in the polling samples. Page 1 of 3 « Last Page 1 \| 2 \| 3 Next Page »

To: koan who wrote (28773)	9/26/2012 9:59:26 AM
From: longnshort	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

Say What?! Obama Spokeswoman Says ‘Women Don’t Care What Happened Over the Past Four Years’ Say What?! Obama Spokeswoman Says ‘Women Don’t Care What Happened Over the Past Four Years’ September 26, 2012 By Lonely Conservative Here’s something the main stream media won’t tell you about. Stephanie Cutter, the spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, actually said that American women don’t care what has happened over the past four years. I don’t know if she’s delusional and actually believes this, or if she’s a diabolical liar. It doesn’t really matter, she doesn’t speak for me. What’s with these liberals who say they speak for women? “That’s the other thing that you find most often with women. They’re not really concerned about what’s happened over the last four years, they really want to know what’s going to happen in the next four years.” Women don’t care that they can’t find jobs? Women don’t care that the cost of gas and food are through the roof? Women don’t care that health insurance premiums have increased? Women don’t care that the US looks weak to the rest of the world? Women don’t care that our kids’ test scores are going down? Women don’t care that our kids can’t afford college? Speak for yourself, Stephanie. Oh, and keep scowling, it fits your personality.

To: koan who wrote (28773)

9/26/2012 2:56:23 PM

From: gamesmistress

1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 85487

If Obama is up by 10 points in OH why is he campaigning there today?

President's Schedule - September 26, 2012
Wednesday, September 26 2012
All Times ET

9:30 am	The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing Oval Office Closed Press
10:15 am	The President departs Joint Base Andrews Travel Pool Coverage
11:35 am	The President arrives Bowling Green, Ohio Toledo Express Airport Open Press
1:05 pm	The President delivers remarks at a campaign event Bowling Green, Bowling Green State University, Ohio Open to pre-credentialed media
2:35 pm	The President departs Bowling Green, Ohio Toledo Express Airport Open Press
3:15 pm	The President arrives Kent, Ohio Akron-Canton Regional Airport Open Press
5:40 pm	The President delivers remarks at a campaign event Kent, Kent State University, Ohio Open to pre-credentialed media
7:00 pm	The President departs Kent, Ohio Akron-Canton Regional Airport Open Press
8:10 pm	The President arrives Joint Base Andrews Press Information
8:25 pm	The President arrives the White House South Lawn